3 Best NBA Bets and Player Props for Nuggets at Mavericks

Even within a single NBA game, betting markets are abundant.

You can bet traditional markets like the spread or the total, but we've also got tons of player-prop markets to sift through.

Which bets stand out today as the Denver Nuggets face the Dallas Mavericks?

Let's dig into the best bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA betting odds, utilizing FanDuel Research's NBA projections to try to find value.

Nuggets at Mavericks Betting Picks

Mavericks Under 114.5 Points (-104)

Keep a close eye on the injury report ahead of tonight's primetime matchup on TNT between the Denver Nuggets and Dallas Mavericks. Denver is expected to have most of its lineup as Nikola Jokic (illness), Jamal Murray (knee), and Aaron Gordon (calf) are all probable to play.

Meanwhile, the Mavericks will be without Luka Doncic (calf) for the 10th consecutive game. Kyrie Irving (back) has missed the last five but has a chance to return with a questionable status after being a full participant at practice.

Of course, Luka (28.1 PPG) and Kyrie (24.3 PPG) spearhead the Dallas offense as Doncic (33.0%) and Irving (26.7%) lead the team in usage rates. During Luka's absence, Dallas has logged only 109.0 points per game (PPG) compared to its season average of 116.1 PPG (ninth-most). Irving and Doncic have both been out for six straight games, and the Mavs have shot 44.4% during the span compared to 47.9% for the season (sixth-highest).

The bottom line: this offense is a far cry from its seventh-best offensive rating when its stars are out. Irving may return tonight, but Dallas' effective field goal percentage (eFG%) drops from 57.5% to 54.0% when Luka is off the court. Its true shooting percentage dips from 60.5% to 57.9% without Doncic.

With Luka and Kyrie making up two of the Mavericks' three most potent three-point shooters, the Mavs tend to attack the rim more often if either contributor is absent. Dallas already logs the ninth-most points in the paint per game, but the Nuggets surrender the sixth-lowest shot distribution around the rim (per Dunks & Threes).

DRatings is predicting a 113.0-point total for the Mavs, pointing to the under on Dallas' 114.5 team total.

Nuggets -3.5 (-110)

Sticking with this game trending in Denver's favor, the Nuggets covering pairs well with Dallas to go under 114.5 points. We went over why the Nuggets' solid interior defense should hold more weight in this matchup, but what about on the other side of the court?

This is where Denver is lethal, sporting the fourth-best offensive rating. The Mavericks have been meh on the defensive end with the 12th-best rating, but they aren't exactly hurting when Doncic and Irving aren't on the court defending.

The Nugs' strategy for scoring is pretty cut and dry. While they average the fewest three-point attempts per game, they also log the most points in the paint per game. Dallas gives up the 3rd-lowest three-point shot distribution compared to the 15th-highest mark around the rim. Opponents average 49.7 points in the paint per game (sixth-most for defense) and 36.0 three-point shots per contest (fourth-lowest for defense) when facing the Mavs' defense.

This defense plays right into what the Nugs want to do -- attack, attack, attack the rim.

We know Dallas' shooting efficiency takes a big dip when Doncic is out, and we can pair that with Denver touting the third-highest eFG% at 56.4%. This game is gearing up toward a road cover for the Nuggets -- especially when they're 7-3 against the spread (ATS) over the last 10 while the Mavericks are 2-8 ATS during the same span.

Nikola Jokic Under 28.5 Points (-106)

All of our picks are not going to be in the Nuggets' favor. Nikola Jokic is averaging 31.2 PPG while carrying the second-shortest NBA MVP odds (+145). However, Jokic has been under 20 points in three of his past five matchups with Dallas.

What's been the difference? The Mavericks added Dereck Lively in the 2023 NBA Draft. After posting a shaky 117.8 defensive rating a season ago, the second-year center currently boasts a 109.8 defensive rating in the 2024-25 season.

Dallas' defense can be susceptible to allowing points in the paint, but it's not due to Lively being an underwhelming defender. Assuming he gets most of the matchups against Jokic, he limits opponents to 50.2% shooting on shots within 10 feet of the bucket in addition to a 52.0% shot distribution allowed in the same range.

Jokic regularly attacks the painted area with a 65.0% field goal frequency within 10 feet, on which he shoots 60.6%. Lively has the ability to limit this part of Joker's game.

On January 12, Jokic was held to 19 points and a 46.2% field goal percentage (55.4% for the season) against the Mavs. Our NBA DFS projections have Jokic in line for 26.7 points, suggesting under his 28.5-point prop.

If these projections are correct, this implies a 64.7% probability for under 29 points (or -183 odds). That's excellent value compared to the current -106 odds for the under (or a 51.5% implied probability).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.