3 Best NBA Bets and Player Props for Mavericks vs. Kings in the Play-In Tournament

The NBA playoffs are here, and even within a single game, betting markets are abundant.

You can bet traditional markets like the spread or the total, but we've also got tons of player-prop markets to sift through.

Which bets stand out today as the Dallas Mavericks face the Sacramento Kings in the Western Conference Play-In Tournament?

Let's dig into the best bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA betting odds, utilizing FanDuel Research's NBA projections to try to find value.

Mavericks at Kings Play-In Betting Picks

Kings Over 109.5 Points (-110)

Tonight's total for the Mavericks-Kings sits at 214 points, yet DRatings' projections have the two combining for 224.8 points while MasseyRatings has the total reaching 232 points. Either way, this is suggesting the total is far too low. Let's dig into the numbers.

Both teams are in the bottom 10 of most three-point stats. Sacramento logs the 17th-most points in the paint per game while Dallas ranks 13th in the category. However, the Kings cede the second-lowest shot distribution around the rim, per Dunks & Threes. Plus, the Mavericks' interior defense is led by Anthony Davis, who is a consistent contender for Defensive Player of the Year, and Dereck Lively (109.9 defensive rating).

However, Dallas allows the third-highest shot distribution around the rim and the second-most points in the paint allowed per game. Davis has played only 9 games in a Mavs uniform, and Lively has been active for only 36 games in the 2024-25 campaign. Assuming the two are finally at full health, this department is bound to improve. Still, it's difficult to ignore those alarming paint defense numbers from the entire season.

Dallas also allows the 6th-most field goal attempts per game while Sacramento averages the 10th-most shots per contest. The Mavericks sporting the 12th-quickest pace only suggests even more points.

I'm hesitant about the Mavs' offense, shifting my attention to the Kings' 109.5-point team total. They've reached over 120 points in their last two matchups against Dallas. DRatings and MasseyRatings each have Sacramento reaching at least 114 points.

Anthony Davis Under 25.5 Points (-106)

We mentioned the Kings' exceptional paint defense, and Davis takes 56.5% of his shots within 10 feet of the basket. Davis has reached 25 points in only three of nine appearances as a Mav.

Prior to being traded to Dallas, Davis logged 22.3 PPG over three games against Sacramento this season. While the Kings allow the fifth-highest shot distribution from three-point land, Davis is shooting a dreadful 28.2% from deep this season. This once again points to his dependance on paint points.

Our NBA DFS projections have Davis reaching only 20.1 points, yet his prop sits at 25.5. This projection suggests an 88.3% implied probability for under 25.5 points, and the current -106 odds for the under holds only a 51.5% implied probability. Between the matchup and projections we are getting terrific value from Davis' under on Wednesday.

Spencer Dinwiddie to Make 2+ Threes (+118)

The path to success against Sacramento's defense is usually three-point shooting as it surrenders the third-most made triples per game. Dallas doesn't shoot many threes with the fifth-fewest attempts per contest, but it still has some players we can target for props.

Since Kyrie Irving's season-ending injury, Spencer Dinwiddie is averaging 33.2 minutes per game compared to his season-long mark of 27.0, and his usage rate jumps from 18.5% to 20.6% when Kyrie and Luka Doncic are taken out of the equation. His three-point volume has slightly increased to 4.6 attempts per game since Irving's injury (up from 4.1).

Focusing on three-point shooting, Dinwiddie has made at least two three-pointers in 10 of the 19 games without Kyrie. That's 52.6% of games, and his current +118 odds for two made triples has an implied probability of only 45.9%.

Our NBA DFS projections also have Dinwiddie draining 1.8 three-pointers, and this suggests a 53.7% implied probability for at least two made threes. Once again, this is emphasizing great value for Dinwiddie's made threes.

You can also check out our latest 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament printable bracket, which includes the seeding and matchups for each conference.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.