3 Best MLB Strikeout Prop Bets for Friday 6/27/25

Within a given MLB slate, there are tons of strikeout props to sort through as there are lines posted for most of the day's starting pitchers.

Across today's action, which MLB player props seem to present the best value in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds?

We're going to dig into that today, laying out my favorite strikeout props across all the action. You can also do some research of your own by digging into our MLB player prop projections.

Please note lines and MLB projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB K Prop Picks

Ryan Pepiot Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+124)

Not many pitchers have performed better than Ryan Pepiot since the start of June as the 27-year-old righty has logged the 2nd-best SIERA (2.52), 13th-best WHIP (0.93), and highest strikeout rate (37.2%) among qualified pitchers during that span. Pepiot has gone four consecutive starts where he's tallied seven-plus Ks, including an 11-strikeout performance versus the Baltimore Orioles, who he will face again on Friday.

Despite the Orioles sporting the 14th-best wOBA (.318), 11th-best wRC+ (107), and 6th-best ISO (.179) against righties, they also have the 4th-highest strikeout rate (23.6%) in that split. Additionally, Baltimore is tallying the 9th-worst wOBA (.296), 11th-worst wRC+ (92), and 6th-highest strikeout rate (24.6%) over the last 14 days.

Ahead of Friday's AL East matchup, the Orioles have four players in their projected lineup who have a strikeout rate of 25.0% or worse versus right-handed pitchers this season. Given Pepiot's recent surge in the strikeout department and Baltimore's recent woes at the plate, this is one of my favorite props on the board for Friday's MLB slate.

Mitch Spence Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-132)

Although I don't love the odds here, Mitch Spence isn't much of a strikeout pitcher, so I'm willing to lay the juice in this matchup against the New York Yankees on the road. After being deployed as a reliever in his first 22 appearances this season, Spence's last 4 outings have been starts.

Across his 26 appearances and 58.2 innings pitched in 2025, Spence is sitting in the 17th percentile in xERA (4.72), 14th percentile in xBA (.280), and 36th percentile in strikeout rate (19.9%). Spence has yet to achieve five-plus Ks in one of his starts despite having positive matchups against the Cleveland Guardians (14th-highest K rate vs. RHP) and Los Angeles Angels (2nd-highest K rate vs. RHP), while he's also thrown 84-plus pitches in back-to-back outings.

While Spence does carry a 82nd percentile chase rate (31.5%), the Yankees have the lowest swing rate on pitches outside of the zone (28.9%), so they don't chase pitches much. With New York posting the third-best wOBA (.339), third-best wRC+ (119), and third-best ISO (.195) versus right-handed pitching this season, I don't believe Spence stays on the mound long enough in this contest to accrue five-plus Ks.

Merrill Kelly Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-112)

Merrill Kelly hasn't been known for his elite strikeout stuff over the years, but the experienced right-handed starter has earned a 25.0% strikeout rate and 11.1% swinging strike rate -- which are both the second-best marks of his career -- through 16 starts and 93.0 innings pitched in 2025. Despite the Miami Marlins registering the fifth-lowest strikeout rate (19.5%) over the last 30 days, there are reasons why Kelly can still rack up Ks in Friday's contest.

For starters, Kelly has managed to accrue six-plus strikeouts in nine consecutive starts, including in matchups versus the San Diego Padres (third-lowest K rate vs. RHP), Washington Nationals (fifth-lowest K vs. RHP), St. Louis Cardinals (fourth-lowest K rate vs. RHP), and New York Mets (eighth-lowest K rate vs. RHP). And even though the Marlins have been striking out less recently, they're a meh team versus righties, logging the 16th-best wOBA (.315), 11th-worst wRC+ (97), 8th-worst ISO (.140), and 15th-highest strikeout rate (21.3%) in that split.

Aside from Kelly ranking in the 78th percentile in chase rate (30.9%), he's thrown his changeup more than last season, which is a pitch that has generated a stellar 36.3% whiff rate this year. Since the start of last season, the Marlins have five players in their projected lineup with a strikeout rate north of 26.0% against a changeup when a right-handed pitcher is on the mound.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.