3 Best MLB Player Prop Bets for Friday 5/16/25

The beauty of baseball is the wide variety of prop markets at your fingertips, from home runs to strikeouts and much more.

Utilizing our MLB projections as a guide, here are some MLB player props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and MLB player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Best MLB Player Props Today

Riley Greene to Record an RBI (+140)

Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Bowden Francis is really struggling to keep the ball in the park, allowing a whopping 2.59 HR/9 across eight starts. While his 20.7% HR/FB rate ought to regress in his favor, he comes into Friday with a 6.25 xERA, 17.0% strikeout rate, 12.0% barrel rate, 50.4% hard-hit rate, and 35.3% ground-ball rate -- all marks that place him below the 20th percentile.

Nine of the dozen dingers Francis has let up have come off left-handed batters, which puts Riley Greene on our radar. Greene is in the 80th percentile or better in barrel rate (15.5%), xSLG (.506), and hard-hit rate (49.1%), which has helped him tie for the second-most RBIs (27) on the Detroit Tigers.

Greene has 10 home runs this season, so he could certainly cash this wager via the long ball, but as Detroit's regular cleanup hitter, he ought to come to the plate with runner(s) on base, too. The Tigers are averaging the fourth-most runs per game (5.55), and their active roster boasts the fourth-best wRC+ (122) versus right-handers.

Adolis Garcia to Record 2+ Total Bases (+130)

After last pitching in 2022 due to injury, right-hander Lance McCullers has predictably struggled for the Houston Astros through his first two 2025 starts.

In his debut, McCullers needed 87 pitches to get through 3 2/3 scoreless innings versus the Chicago White Sox, and then things got far worse in his next start, as he gave up seven earned runs to the Cincinnati Reds while recording just one out.

Although the sample remains incredibly small, McCullers has posted a 15.4% strikeout rate, 5.7% swinging-strike rate, and 23.1% walk rate thus far while showing reduced velocity. His Statcast metrics are poor across the board, as well. McCullers could find his previous form eventually, but these early returns suggest there's a long road ahead.

While Adolis Garcia has been a mixed bag for the Texas Rangers this season, he's still got some power in his bat, as shown by a .493 xSLG (76th percentile), 15.7% barrel rate (89th percentile), 92.7 mph average exit velocity (89th percentile), and 49.6% hard-hit rate (83rd percentile).

And for this particular market, it also helps that Garcia rarely walks (5.2% BB rate), making it less likely McCullers puts him on base via a free pass.

Garcia has recorded 2+ total bases in four of the last five games, and he has a good opportunity to do so again tonight.

Freddie Freeman to Record an RBI (-105)

Freddie Freeman is tied for the league's fourth-most RBIs (34), and he should be able to add to his tally against Los Angeles Angels right-hander Jack Kochanowicz.

Kochanowicz has been knocked around for a 5.23 ERA over eight starts, and it looks largely deserved given that he's also sitting on a 4.80 xERA and 5.23 SIERA.

But what should really have us interested in Freeman tonight is Kochanowicz's numbers against left-handed batters. In that split, the righty has put up a 5.41 xFIP, 11.7% strikeout rate, 10.7% walk rate, and 42.5% ground-ball rate.

It's no secret Freeman is thriving for the Dodgers this season, owning MLB's second-best wRC+ (206) and fourth-best ISO (.328). He's in the 96th percentile or better in xwOBA (.424), xBA (.317), and xSLG (.612), as well.

With such a juicy matchup on tap, it's easy to envision another explosion from the Dodgers at the plate, and Freeman ought to be a big part of that.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.