3 Best MLB NRFI Bets on Wednesday 8/20/25

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NRFI Betting Picks for Today

St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-106)

Right-handers Andre Pallante and Sandy Alcantara have both had a rough go of it this season, but they've held it together in the first inning, making this a potential NRFI target at solid odds.

Alcantara has logged a scoreless first inning in 16 of 24 starts and is on a streak of 6 straight NRFIs. He's backed those early-game results with a reasonable 4.12 xFIP, 17.6% strikeout rate, and 6.5% walk rate the first time through the order, as his xFIP (4.68) and walk rate (10.0%) take a huge hit once batters have seen his stuff once.

This is also a plus matchup for Alcantara to keep up his NRFI streak. The St. Louis Cardinals rank 28th in YRFI rate (24.4%) and 30th in first-inning runs per game (0.31).

Although Pallante's had mixed results, his 61.0% ground-ball rate sits in the 97th percentile, and his 7.1% barrel rate is in the 69th percentile. His suppression of both fly balls and barrels makes him far less likely to allow any first-inning runs via the long ball, which is always a positive. He's had a couple of missteps in the first inning of late but has still produced a NRFI in 18 of 24 outings.

The Miami Marlins are in the bottom third in YRFI rate (27.0%), further assisting Pallante.

New York Mets at Washington Nationals

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-113)

The New York Mets and Washington Nationals have been in the middle of the pack when it comes to YRFIs, so this isn't a bad spot to see whether Kodai Senga and Brad Lord can combine for a scoreless opening inning.

Lord has split time between the rotation and bullpen for the Nats this year, but he's consistently gotten the job done in the first inning, logging a NRFI in 9 of his 11 starts. As a starter, he's posted a 3.59 xFIP, 19.2% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate, and 50.0% ground-ball rate the first time through the order. Despite being a right-hander, his K rate actually jumps to 24.3% versus left-handed batters, so he's well-equipped to handle the Mets' lefty-heavy top of the order.

Curiously, the Mets have really struggled to score first-inning runs on the road (23.0% YRFI rate in away games), which is another reason to have confidence in Lord.

Senga has produced a NRFI across 8 starts in a row and in 15 of 19 outings overall. While his 2.35 ERA could be due for regression, he's been above average in xERA (3.71), strikeout rate (22.9%), and ground-ball rate (47.8%) in 2025. Senga bumps up his ground-ball rate against lefties (51.8%), so similar to Lord, he shouldn't be at a huge disadvantage against Washington's lefty sticks atop the lineup.

San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-125)

For all of JP Sears' struggles this season, he's been consistently excellent in the opening frame, so he shouldn't scare us off from a NRFI bid in this San Francisco Giants-San Diego Padres matchup.

Sears didn't exactly have a great Padres debut earlier this month, but he's getting a shot at redemption tonight. If nothing else, he ought to start out strong, as he's pitched a scoreless first inning in 21 of 23 starts, which is supported by a 29.1% K rate in the opening inning and a 25.6% clip the first time through the order.

The Giants have been more productive in the first inning lately, but they're still roughly neutral in YRFI rate (28.6%). Temperatures in the 70s and low wind speeds are expected at Petco Park, so bats won't get a notable boost from the weather, which is especially helpful for an extreme fly-ball pitcher like Sears, too.

Landen Roupp has enjoyed a solid campaign, and that's helped him to preventing earned runs in 17 of 21 first innings. While he had a shaky return from the IL in his last start, he still managed a clean first inning, so that shouldn't be a major concern. When pitching the first time through the order, he's put up a 3.52 xFIP, 24.3% K rate, and 46.8% GB rate.

The Padres have been a plus matchup for NRFIs, sitting 23rd in YRFI rate (26.2%), and that number drops even further at home (25.0%).

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