3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Wednesday 6/18/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Max Kepler to Hit a Home Run (+560)

On Wednesday, the Miami Marlins are expected to have Adam Mazur make his first start of the season after he tallied a 1.66 HR/9 and 41.2% hard-hit rate in 59.2 innings pitched at the Triple-A level in 2025. Across 8 starts and 33.2 innings pitched a season ago for the San Diego Padres, Mazur logged a woeful 6.05 SIERA, 6.20 xFIP, and 1.60 HR/9, so he's someone we can pick on in the home run category.

Although it was a limited sample, Mazur surrendered a .428 wOBA, 1.50 HR/9, and 40.6% flyball rate to lefties in 2024, making Max Kepler an enticing option at these odds. In his first year with the Philadelphia Phillies, Kepler has tallied a .330 wOBA, 110 wRC+, .202 ISO, and 43.3% flyball rate versus right-handed pitchers.

Over the last 14 days, Kepler has notched the second-best average exit velocity (96.8 MPH), eighth-best barrel rate (21.4%), and third-highest hard-hit rate (67.9%) in baseball during that span. Considering that Mazur may not have an expanded workload in his first start of the campaign, it's worth noting that he'll give way to a Miami bullpen that has the 11th-worst HR/9 (1.05), 4th-lowest strikeout rate (19.8%), 14th-worst barrel rate (8.1%), and 13th-worst hard-hit rate (39.9%).

Yandy Diaz to Hit a Home Run (+480)

We don't have a large sample from Trevor Rogers this season, as the left-handed starter has made just one start for the Baltimore Orioles, and it took place back on May 24. However, Rogers has struggled at the Triple-A level this season with a 5.46 ERA and 1.55 WHIP, and he struggled to the tune of a 4.91 SIERA and 8.4% barrel rate a season ago.

With Rogers permitting a .345 wOBA, 1.11 HR/9, 35.6% flyball rate, and just a 16.7% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters last season (compared to a .369 wOBA, 0.66 HR/9, 26.4% flyball rate, and 19.1% strikeout against left-handed hitters), Yandy Diaz is in a fantastic spot for the Tampa Bay Rays. While Diaz's wOBA and wRC+ metrics are better versus right-handed pitchers, he does have a higher ISO (.203), lower strikeout rate (9.3%), and higher flyball rate (34.3%) when facing southpaws this year.

Along with Diaz getting to play at hitter-friendly Steinbrenner Field (sixth in home run park factor in 2025), he's been seeing the ball well, producing the 9th-best average exit velocity (94.6 MPH) and 13th-best hard-hit rate (56.8%) over the last 14 days. Meanwhile, Baltimore's relievers have registered the eighth-worst HR/9 (1.20), ninth-worst barrel rate (9.0%), ninth-worst hard-hit rate (41.0%), and third-highest flyball rate (44.3%) across the last 30 days of action.

Isaac Paredes to Hit a Home Run (+420)

The best hitting weather on Wednesday likely comes in the showdown between the Houston Astros and Athletics at Sutter Health Park (seventh in home run park factor in 2025), with winds blowing out and temperatures approaching 100 degrees. On top of that, Luis Severino is tallying a 1.56 WHIP, 1.04 HR/9, and .331 BABIP at home this season, compared to a 0.96 WHIP, 0.00 HR/9, and .223 BABIP when pitching on the road.

Additionally, Severino is coughing up a 1.04 HR/9 and 37.5% flyball rate versus right-handed pitchers in home outings, putting Isaac Paredes on my radar in this contest. Paredes is a right-handed slugger who has reverse splits at the plate, notching a .375 wOBA, 146 wRC+, and .222 ISO against righties (compared to a .285 wOBA, 82 wRC+, and .214 ISO against lefties).

Since the start of last season, Paredes is sporting a .172 ISO or better and .358 wOBA or better versus Severino's three primary pitches against right-handed hitters (sweeper, sinker, and four-seam fastball). In addition to the weather favoring the hitters in this matchup, Paredes will also get to face an Athletics bullpen that has the second-worst HR/9 (1.45), worst barrel rate (13.1%), and ninth-highest flyball rate (40.2%) over the last 30 days.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.