3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Wednesday 5/7/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Wyatt Langford to Hit a Home Run (+520)

The Texas Rangers have the 11th-fewest home runs this season paired with the 7th-lowest SLG and 5th-lowest HR/FB rate. However, facing the Boston Red Sox's Tanner Houck opens up the door for improved slugging.

Houck has a dreadful 1.72 HR/9 allowed while giving up a 21.2% HR/FB rate. He's surrendered seven dingers in seven starts, helping contribute to his mediocre 4.04 SIERA. Despite clear struggles against power hitting, Houck has still pitched for at least six innings in two of the past three, meaning Texas should have plenty of chances to go yard.

Wyatt Langford currently leads the Rangers with six home runs, and I like his chances of taking his total to seven. He has the usual promising numbers, including a 17.6% HR/FB rate while ranking in the 76th percentile of xSLG and 83rd percentile of bat speed. Langford also has a good individual matchup against Houck.

Langford is raking against sinkers with a .440 batting average, and Houck's most-used pitch is a sinker (39.4%). Houck also features sweepers (34.2%) and splitters (20.1%), and Langford currently has a 50.0% fly-ball rate against sweepers. He has only two plate appearances against splitters in 2025 but posted a 50.0% fly-ball rate against the pitch a season ago.

Wind blowing out to left field is our final nail in the coffin for the right-handed hitter to go yard.

Austin Riley to Hit a Home Run (+400)

The Cincinnati Reds-Atlanta Braves game features two starters with HR/9 marks surpassing 1.45. Hunter Greene has given up six big flies over his last three outings, putting Atlanta's batters in a prime position to swing for the fences.

As usual, Greene's toolbox mostly leans on four-seam fastballs (58.7%) and sliders (31.8%). In 2022 and 2023, Greene allowed 1.72 and 1.53 HR/9. After recording a career-low 0.72 HR/9 last season, he is back up to 1.48. When Greene is hurling a fastball over 50.0% of the time, it's no wonder sluggers are having success.

Furthermore, Greene is currently holding a career-high fly-ball rate allowed of 57.0%.

Focusing on the Braves' Austin Riley, he has a 43.9% fly-ball rate and 18.6% HR/FB rate. He's also in the 90th percentile for average exit velocity, 96th percentile of barrel rate, 93rd percentile of hard-hit rate, and 94th percentile of bat speed.

The bottom line: Riley is a dangerous slugger with some serious power behind his bat.

Meanwhile, Greene sits in the 23rd percentile of barrel rate allowed and 34th percentile of hard-hit rate allowed.

With Riley batting .300 against fastballs and .318 when seeing sliders, give me the Braves' home run leader to keep rolling.

Byron Buxton to Hit a Home Run (+430)

The Baltimore Orioles' pitching situation has been dreadful, with the O's sporting a 5.52 ERA (second-highest) and 4.36 SIERA (fifth-highest). This goes hand-in-hand with allowing home runs as Baltimore cedes a 14.6% HR/FB rate (second-highest) and 32.8% hard-hit rate (third-highest).

Charlie Morton -- who will be on the rubber for his sixth start -- has certainly been part of the problem. He has a pitiful 2.28 HR/9 allowed along with a 19.4% HR/FB rate. Morton is in the 19th percentile of barrel rate allowed and 7th percentile of hard-hit percentage allowed. At this point, targeting a home run prop when Morton is pitching is always worthwhile -- regardless of the opponent.

Among the Minnesota Twins' deflating slugging stats (10th-fewest homers), Byron Buxton sticks out like a sore thumb with a team-high eight dingers (second-most is four). His Savant numbers say enough as he's sitting in the 90th percentile of barrel rate, 95th percentile of hard-hit rate, and 88th percentile of bat speed.

Going back to Morton's concerning HR/FB allowed, Buxton regularly launches pitches sky-high with a 44.8% fly-ball rate, and these get over the wall quite often with a 20.5% HR/FB. Buxton is hitting better than .280 against both of Morton's most-used pitches (fastball and curveball), and four of his eight home runs have come against these two pitches.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.