3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Tuesday 9/16/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

George Springer to Hit a Home Run (+320)

The Tampa Bay Rays' temporary home has proven to be a bomb factory, ranking fifth in adjusted home runs allowed this year. Unfortunately, the home side has a pitcher who can struggle with the long ball, too.

Ryan Pepiot has coughed up 1.73 HR/9 to same-handed bats in 2025, and he's at or outside the 30th percentile in hard-hit rate (42.8%), barrel rate (9.5%), and average exit velocity (90.3 mph) to all hitters.

Enter George Springer. The Toronto Blue Jays' leadoff man has slugged (.682) like a cleanup hitter against right-handers in the past 30 days, posting an excellent 50.0% flyball rate and 45.7% hard-hit rate over his last 102 plate appearances (PAs). He's got nine (!) homers in these parameters.

At 0.28 median home runs in FanDuel Research's MLB home run projections, we'd have expected him closer to +309 for yet another round-tripper.

Jackson Chourio to Hit a Home Run (+400)

At 21 years old, Caden Dana's third MLB start will come on the road against one of the best teams in baseball this year, and he's facing Freddy Peralta. Good luck, kid.

Dana seems to be due for some refinement in the minors come 2026. I'm amazed his skill-interactive ERA (4.58 SIERA) is so low with a 15.5% walk rate, but he's shown the good (28.6% K) to get swings and misses. When that command completely fails, though, he's permitted 4.76 HR/9 to righties in this small sample with an elevated flyball (41.0%) and hard-hit (42.0%) rate against all batters.

The Milwaukee Brewers have to be thrilled that Jackson Chourio has picked up right where he left off since returning from the IL, posting a .912 OPS, .233 ISO, 45.9% flyball rate, and 43.2% hard-hit rate in 48 PAs against right-handed pitchers.

We've got Chourio projected right with Springer (0.28 HR), so his longer odds are an even better value.

Mickey Moniak to Hit a Home Run (+420)

Former No. 1 overall pick Mickey Moniak has shed the bust label in a breakout season with the Colorado Rockies, and he could add to his dinger total on Tuesday.

Moniak ran into an August slump, but things are back on track with a pair of bombs this weekend. His .211 ISO, 45.9% flyball rate, and 34.4% hard-hit rate against righties in the past 30 days are still someone very live to exploit a weak matchup at Coors Field, and he's exclusively a threat with the platoon edge as 20 of his 21 homers have come in the split.

The Rockies could give a rude welcome to Eury Perez's iffy contact splits. He's let up 1.31 HR/9 to lefties with really poor flyball (50.2%) and hard-hit (45.5%) rates allowed to all batters. Regression has hit the lanky right-hander with force late in the season; he has a 6.57 ERA and has permitted 2.21 HR/9 since August 1st.

Moniak is projected for 0.26 home runs, which still shows value anywhere south of approximately +337 odds.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.