3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Tuesday 6/17/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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Today's Best Home Run Props

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Mickey Moniak to Hit a Home Run (+600)

Don't look now, but the Colorado Rockies are on a winning streak, and Mickey Moniak can help add a game to it.

A bump up the order could be overdue for the former number one overall pick. In the last 30 days, he's tattooed right-handed pitching for a .986 OPS, .409 ISO, 48.1% flyball rate, and 35.7% hard-hit rate. The loft is a huge reason why he's got 5 homers in 46 plate appearances (PAs) during this time.

Michael Soroka is a more vulnerable target than his 3.55 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) would suggest. He's got pretty severe splits based on handedness, coughing up a 6.20 FIP, 2.70 HR/9, and an elevated 36.6% hard-hit rate to lefties. Plus, the Washington Nationals' bullpen has baseball's worst SIERA themselves (4.39) over the past 30 days.

It was surprising to see Moniak near the top of our MLB home run projections at 0.24 median dingers, but he's raking in this split right now.

Jazz Chisholm to Hit a Home Run (+420)

Anytime the New York Yankees are at home with the short porch, a home run prop is on the table. Jazz Chisholm should be one of the favorites on the team to take advantage of it.

Chisholm has had more of an issue with staying healthy than bashing right-handed pitching. Over the past month in the split, Jazz's OPS (1.092) and wRC+ (192) check in just behind Aaron Judge, and his flyball (35.0%) and hard-hit (40.0%) rates during this time are pretty sporty.

Moreover, the Bronx Bombers have to be licking their chops to draw Kyle Hendricks in MLB's third-best park for bombs. Hendricks has coughed up 1.52 HR/9 this year, and lefties have managed a higher flyball rate (45.2%) than righties (41.4%) when the porch is a significant factor. As a result, I'm a bit squeamish about those tiny odds for Judge to knock one out (+156).

FDR projects Chisholm for 0.25 median round-trippers in tonight's game, implying closer to +352 odds for one. At current odds, there isn't a better target on his squad.

Carlos Santana to Hit a Home Run (+800)

I've come to learn with Robbie Ray that you should be skeptical when his performance seems too good to be true.

The 33-year-old southpaw has a 2.55 ERA, but a 3.58 SIERA indicates potential regression could be coming. Ray has allowed north of 1.50 HR/9 in five consecutive seasons, and his 0.66 mark this season isn't some sign of revelation or change. He's just gotten extremely lucky with a tiny homer-to-flyball ratio (6.6% HR/FB) while still allowing plenty of flyballs (44.2% rate) with extreme force (44.6% hard-hit rate allowed).

Carlos Santana's .819 OPS lifetime off of Ray doesn't hurt, but the switch-hitter is also mashing from the right side of the dish at present. He's got a massive 63.6% hard-hit rate across his last 32 PAs against lefties with a decent rate of flyballs (31.8%). I think he's undervalued in this market with just 1 home run and a .143 ISO in this time despite his best efforts.

Our projections have taken notice of the first baseman's recent contact rates -- and extremely favorable winds in San Francisco this evening. They're expecting 0.24 median homers (+369 implied) out of Santana in this matchup.

Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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