3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Tuesday 5/13/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

On top of that, FanDuel Sportsbook has a special offer for users betting a "To Hit a Home Run" wager today!

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Today's Best Home Run Props

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+470)

The Tampa Bay Rays are putting a vulnerable pitcher on the mound in Shane Baz. After allowing 1.02 HR/9 last season, he's given up a 1.17 mark through seven starts. He also ranks in the 26th percentile of barrel percentage allowed and 40th percentile of hard-hit rate allowed. After allowing at least one big fly in five of his past six starts, targeting a batter on the Toronto Blue Jays feels worthwhile.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hasn't been putting up the same slugging numbers as 2021 (48 homers), and his ability to launch pitches over the wall has taken another hit through 40 games with only four dingers. However, the matchup is there for Vlad to get back to smashing homers. He still has several stats suggesting positive regression is coming, such as sitting in the 94th percentile of bat speed and 90th percentile of hard-hit percentage.

Pitch usage is another check mark for Guerrero to find success in this matchup. Baz mostly features a four-seam fastball (45.2%) and knuckle curve (34.4%). Similar to many batters, Vlad performs well against four-seamers with a career .317 batting average and hits .333 against the pitch this season. Finding success against knuckle curves is easier said than done, though. In one at-bat against the pitch this season, Guerrero has a hit. Across 39 career at-bats against the pitch, Guerrero boasts a .309 batting average.

Additionally, the Rays' bullpen gives up the fourth-highest HR/FB% at 13.2%, extending Vlad's chances of going yard from start to finish.

Bobby Witt Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+470)

Tonight could be the day of the juniors as Bobby Witt Jr. also has a nice matchup for a big fly in the Kansas City Royals-Houston Astros matchup. In the past, Framber Valdez was a pitcher to avoid with HR/9s of 0.66 or lower in two of the past three seasons. But that's not the case right now as Valdez is in the 46th percentile of barrel rate allowed and 25th percentile of hard-hit percentage allowed. Struggling in hard-hit rate allowed is nothing new, though, for Valdez has been in the 25th percentile or worse in every season since 2019.

With that said, Witt has regularly hit well against left-handed hurlers. He's been even better in this split thus far with a .393 batting average compared to .304 when facing righties. However, none of his five homers have come against southpaws. I believe it's time for that stretch to end tonight.

Valdez has ceded a dinger in three consecutive appearances. Three of Witt's five taters have come over 11 games in May.

Across his career, Witt has a .326 batting average against sinkers and .285 when facing curveballs. Both marks have improved to .364 and .625 thus far. Plus, three of five homers came against these pitches. Valdez heavily leans on these two tools with his sinker leading the way at 48.4% while his curveball carries a 30.1% usage rate.

Our MLB DFS projections point to good value with this pick, as well. Witt is forecasted for 0.21 home runs, which has a 18.9% implied probability (or +429 odds).

Heliot Ramos to Hit a Home Run (+560)

Over eight starts, the Arizona Diamondbacks' Brandon Pfaadt has surrendered seven home runs -- leading to his concerning 1.35 HR/9 compared to 1.19 from last season. It doesn't stop there as Pfaadt is in the 38th percentile of barrel rate allowed and 15th percentile of hard-hit percentage surrendered.

For the San Francisco Giants, Heliot Ramos is off to a scorching start after posting 22 long balls in 2024. He's already smashed seven homers, sporting a 17.5% HR/FB compared to 17.3% a season ago. He has recent success, too, with three dingers over 10 games in May.

Pitch usage is where this pick becomes very favorable. Pfaadt mostly rotates between a four-seam fastball (30.7%), sweeper (20.3%), changeup (18.9%), and sinker (18.3%). Ramos is currently batting .300, .256, .353, and .370 against the four pitches. He even boasts a 50.0% HR/FB when seeing sinkers, and it's 37.5% against four-seam fastballs.

Arizona's bullpen also allows the second-highest HR/FB% at 14.9%, further fueling Ramos' chances of logging another home run.

Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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