3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Thursday 6/5/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Seiya Suzuki to Hit a Home Run (+330)

The Washington Nationals allow the 10th-highest SLG, and Jake Irvin is unlikely to help the number fall. He's in the 14th percentile of barrel percentage allowed and 18th percentile of hard-hit rate ceded paired with 1.23 HR/9. This isn't out of the ordinary, either, as Irvin posted HR/9s of 1.49 and 1.39 in the 2023 and 2024 seasons, respectively.

When looking at the Chicago Cubs' bats, targeting a right-handed hitter is ideal with winds blowing out to left field. Seiya Suzuki is second on the team with 14 home runs, putting him on pace to surpass his career-high of 21 big flies from a season ago. He's in the 91st percentile of average exit velocity, 95th percentile of barrel rate, and 81st percentile of hard-hit percentage -- all of which should help expose Irvin giving up concerning hard-hit rates.

Furthermore, Suzuki has hit 8 of 14 dingers against right-handed hurlers. Irvin's three most-used pitches are a curveball (37.3%), four-seam fastball (29.9%), and sinker (18.5%). While Suzuki is batting only .167 against curves, this feels bound to come up considering his .302 career average against the pitch. Plus, he's hitting .265 against four-seam fastballs and .318 when seeing sinkers. Once again, Suzuki's career marks are higher at .280 and .341, respectively. He's hit 9 of his 14 homers against four-seam fastballs and sinkers, as well.

Irvin is a favorable matchup across the board for one of Chicago's best sluggers. The deal only gets sweeter with winds to left field potentially providing more lift for the right-handed Suzuki.

Austin Wells to Hit a Home Run (+390)

The New York Yankees have the second-highest home run percentage, spearheaded by Aaron Judge's 21 taters. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Guardians are throwing Slade Cecconi -- who has a dreadful 2.93 HR/9. However, Cecconi has a small sample size of only three starts this year, but he still posted 1.87 HR/9 last season. After Cecconi finished in the ninth percentile of barrel rate allowed a season ago, backing one of the Yankees' sluggers is as clear as day.

Adding to Cecconi's worries, he has allowed plenty of lift of recent, finishing the 2024 season with a 48.4% fly-ball rate, and he carries a 46.7% mark in 2025. While Judge feels due for a homer, his +164 odds are too low for my liking. Instead, Austin Wells at +390 is more appealing.

Our MLB DFS projections have Wells forecasted for 0.27 home runs, which comes out to a 23.7% implied probability for one big fly (or +322 odds). We are high on him for good reason as six of his nine taters have come against right-handed pitches and six have come against Cecconi's three most-used pitches.

Wells' .208 batting average causes obvious pause, but he's hitting .264 against four-seam fastballs and .250 when seeing curves -- which make up two of Cecconi's three most-used pitches. Furthermore, Wells gets good lift with a 51.6% fly-ball rate while ranking in the 74th percentile of average exit velocity and 78th percentiles of both hard-hit rate and bat speed.

Judge will likely overshadow everyone in this Yankees batting order tonight -- and with good reason -- but don't sleep on Wells against Cecconi.

Corey Seager to Hit a Home Run (+265)

Keep an eye on the weather for a matchup between the Texas Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays as there is a chance of showers. Assuming this game plays out, Texas has an angle to find success against Ryan Pepiot.

Tampa Bay's starter has posted 1.18 HR/9 or higher his entire career, and this continues to ring true this year at 1.29 through 12 starts. Despite a 3.21 ERA, he's still ceded 10 dingers in 12 starts. So, who has the best matchup to go yard on the Rangers?

Look no further than Corey Seager.

His six home runs are underwhelming, but he's played in only 32 games thus far. We know Seager is plenty capable of slugging after reaching at least 30 taters in each of the last three seasons. Plus, he's currently in the 94th percentiles of both average exit velocity and hard-hit rate and 87th percentile for barrel percentage. His .435 SLG feels bound to jump as the season progresses.

Texas' star infielder is also batting .298 against righties, compared to .175 when battling southpaws. Furthermore, Seager is hitting .250 against four-seam fastballs, .200 when facing changeups, and .294 against sliders -- which form Pepiot's three most-used pitches. While the current .200 mark against changeups is concerning, Seager bats .261 against the pitch across his career. Due to a small sample size in 2025, this should rise, and the same can be said for his .307 career average against four seamers.

Look for Seager's slugging numbers to climb in Thursday night's contest.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.