3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Thursday 5/1/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Christopher Morel to Hit a Home Run (+470)

There are a lot of day games today, and this first pick comes from one of those (1:10 p.m. ET).

Seth Lugo was second in last season's AL Cy Young voting. He's taken a big step back so far in 2025, and with Lugo pitching in the Tampa Bay Rays' hitter-friendly temporary home, I like Christopher Morel to hit a dinger.

Lugo owns a 4.29 SIERA and 41.9% fly-ball rate through his first 38 frames of the campaign. He's allowed 1.42 home runs per nine innings, and he's barely missing bats with a lowly 7.8% swinging-strike rate.

All of those numbers benefit Morel, who is an extreme fly-ball hitter. Morel holds a gaudy 50.0% fly-ball rate along with a .360 expected wOBA. His wOBA is .370 in righty-righty matchups, and a lot of things align today to make his +470 homer odds appealing.

Bryce Harper to Hit a Home Run (+350)

The Philadelphia Phillies are in a smash spot, and Bryce Harper can take advantage.

Philly is at home against Brad Lord, a righty who has pitched to a 4.89 SIERA and 16.7% K rate through his first 17 1/3 MLB innings. Oddsmakers are expecting the Phillies to do a lot of damage as Harper and company are listed at +100 to go over 5.5 runs.

Harper's statistical profile is excellent, per usual. He's mashed his way to a .382 expected wOBA and 48.2% fly-ball rate. With the platoon advantage this season, Harper has posted a .372 wOBA and 50.0% fly-ball rate.

A 12.2% homer-to-fly-ball rate has limited Harper to just five jacks, but with a career homer-to-fly-ball rate of 20.4%, he's due for some long-balls. I think he gets one today.

Heliot Ramos to Hit a Home Run (+680)

At home against a meh left-hander, Heliot Ramos can go yard.

Said meh southpaw is Kyle Freeland. While Freeland is off to a nice start in 2025 (3.32 SIERA), he has a long track record of not being that good, including a 4.78 SIERA and 15.5% K rate since the start of 2023 (299 1/3 innings). A year ago, righties slugged 1.67 homers per nine off Freeland.

Ramos broke out with a 22-homer season last year, and he was incredible in 123 plate appearances versus LHP, racking up a 41.3% hard-hit rate and .490 wOBA en route to hitting 10 taters in the split.

That'll play against Freeland, and with the wind blowout out to left-center in San Fran, Ramos' +680 homer odds catch my eye.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.