3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Thursday 4/3/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Bryce Harper to Hit a Home Run (+450)

Starting off with a pick from one of Thursday's day games, I'm backing Bryce Harper to go yard in the Colorado Rockies-Philadelphia Phillies clash, which starts at 1:06 p.m. ET.

Harper will see righty Antonio Senzatela. The Rockies' veteran has barely pitched in the bigs since 2022 due to injury, amassing only 24 1/3 MLB innings since the start of 2023. Back in 2022, Senzatela recorded a 4.48 SIERA across 92 1/3 frames, and over his career, lefties own a .347 wOBA against him.

Harper has started slowly this campaign, but his underlying numbers look good as he's got a .352 expected wOBA (xwOBA) and 55.6% fly-ball rate.

At home versus right-handers is the ideal spot to back Harper. In the split in 2024, he posted a .429 wOBA, 39.6% hard-hit rate and 41.0% fly-ball rate -- popping 13 homers in 204 plate appearances.

Harper has just the fourth-shortest HR odds in this game, and I'm happy to get him at this number at home -- in the fifth-best park for homers, per Statcast park factors -- against a meh righty.

Josh Naylor to Hit a Home Run (+480)

A couple former Cleveland Guardians meet up tonight in the Bronx when the New York Yankees host the Arizona Diamondbacks, and I see Josh Naylor getting the better of Carlos Carrasco.

In truth, there are quite a few homer props that look appealing in this game with Carrasco and Merrill Kelly taking the ball at homer-friendly Yankee Stadium. But given the +480 odds on Naylor, he's my favorite pick from this one.

Carrasco is in his age-38 season, and while he's still mostly put up respectable numbers in recent years, he's got a 4.70 SIERA across 2023 and 2024 (193 2/3 innings), so he's not the guy he used to be. He allowed 1.72 homers per nine innings in that span.

Naylor has always done his best work against righties, and that was the case last year as he registered a .340 wOBA and 25 jacks in the split. This is a great spot for him to launch his first tater of 2025.

Spencer Steer to Hit a Home Run (+600)

Nestor Cortes is pitching tonight for the Milwaukee Brewers, so I want to throw a couple darts at Cincinnati Reds batters. Spencer Steer catches my eye at +600.

Cortes' Brewers debut couldn't have gone much worse as he permitted five dingers and five walks in just two innings. Big yikes. We can't bank on him to be that bad again, but he's allowed 1.50 homers per nine since the start of 2023 so the long-ball is an issue for him.

Last season, right-handed hitters mashed their way to 1.46 homers per nine and a 48.2% fly-ball rate versus Cortes.

Steer is one of a few Reds righties who can do damage today. He's off to a brutal start so far this season (.059 wOBA), but he's hit 20 and 23 homers the last two years. He produced a 43.9% fly-ball rate with the platoon advantage in 2024, and American Family Field is the sixth-best park for homers.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.