3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Monday 8/18/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Christian Yelich to Hit a Home Run (+600)

Christian Yelich has smashed 25 home runs this season (17th-most in MLB), hitting at least one in 18.9% of games this season. These +600 odds imply only a 14.3% probability.

Yelich's long home run odds are curious for a few key reasons. For starters, he owns a .304 ISO and .609 SLG across the past two weeks and has hit four bombs since last Monday. Seiya Suzuki has +290 home run odds in this one despite showing a meh .071 ISO across the past 30 days.

The Milwaukee Brewers are also expected to tee off against Jameson Taillon in the second leg of Monday's doubleheader with the Chicago Cubs, which makes for a great matchup for Yelich.

Taillon has been sidelined with a calf strain but has been a launching pad all season long, giving up a .207 ISO, 40.3% fly-ball rate, and 1.72 home runs per nine innings to left-handed hitters.

Yelich is in a smash spot, touting a .280 BA, .250 ISO, and .530 SLG against northpaws. Our MLB projections forecast Yeli to notch 0.24 home runs in the Cubs-Brewers night game.

Salvador Perez to Hit a Home Run (+330)

Salvador Perez has produced an 18.8% barrel rate, 50.0% fly-ball rate, and .301 ISO across the past 30 days, smacking nine home runs in that 26-game span.

The veteran may be on a heater, but he still paces MLB in home runs under expectation (-4.3) in 2025. Can he hit one over the fence tonight?

Jack Leiter will get the ball for the opposing Texas Rangers. He sports a nice 3.94 ERA but has troubling ERA indicators, including a 4.93 expected ERA, 4.96 xFIP, and 4.82 SIERA. Not only is Leiter due to regress in the wrong direction, but he shows reverse splits by tossing up a .408 SLG, 46.2% fly-ball rate, and 1.21 home runs per nine innings to right-handed hitters.

Since July, Perez is belting RHPs for a .314 BA, .347 ISO, .661 SLG, and a 49.5% fly-ball rate on only a 17.8% strikeout rate and 3.9% walk rate. Thus, he's a worthwhile home run target in this inviting matchup against Leiter.

Teoscar Hernandez to Hit a Home Run (+310)

The Los Angeles Dodgers are visiting Coors Field on Monday night, so Teoscar Hernandez's +310 home run odds immediately jump off the page.

Hernandez touts a 17.7% barrel rate and .258 ISO across the past 30 days, as well as a monstrous 27.6% barrel rate and .357 ISO in the past two weeks. That level of momentum is primed to pay off at Coors against Kyle Freeland.

Freeland enters with a 5.18 ERA, 5.51 xERA, 4.56 SIERA, 4.34 xFIP, and 15.6% K%. He surrenders a .309 BA, .493 SLG, and 1.48 HR/9 to right-handed hitters. At Coors, he struggles with a 6.52 ERA and yields a .553 SLG to righties in the split.

Hernandez, meanwhile, sports a .308 BA, .308 ISO, and .615 SLG against left-handed pitchers. He strikes out (17.1%) and walks (4.9%) at low rates against this handedness all while maintaining a 43.8% fly-ball rate versus southpaws. With that, Hernandez is probably my favorite bet to go long tonight.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.