3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Monday 4/7/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Teoscar Hernandez to Hit a Home Run (+430)

Teoscar Hernandez is coming off a two-homer performance on Sunday against the Philadelphia Phillies, and he's got a decent shot at going deep again on Monday versus another lefty starter. MacKenzie Gore is set to make his third start of the new campaign, and three of Hernandez's four long balls this season have occurred when there is a left-handed pitcher on the mound.

Despite Gore residing in the 92nd percentile in strikeout rate (40.9%) and 87th percentile in chase rate (37.1%) across 2 starts and 11.0 innings pitched, he's also in the 10th percentile in barrel rate (17.4%), 19th percentile in hard-hit rate (52.2%), and 32nd percentile in average exit velocity (91.1 MPH). Gore is also registering a 40.9% fly-ball rate, so batters facing him are hitting it hard and putting the ball in the air often early in the season.

Although it's an extremely small sample size to begin the year, Hernandez is logging the second-best wOBA (.747), second-best wRC+ (393), and fourth-best ISO (.786) versus southpaws. There are some weather concerns for Monday's matchup between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Washington Nationals, so we'll need to keep tabs on the status of the game throughout the day.

Corbin Carroll to Hit a Home Run (+540)

After being limited by a shoulder injury last season, Corbin Carroll looks poised to hit for more power this season. Over his first 46 plate appearances in 2025, Carroll is currently 18th in average exit velocity (95.2 MPH), 18th in barrel rate (20.7%), and 25th in hard-hit rate (58.6%), which has led to him ranking 7th in xSLG (.783).

The only concern for Carroll right now is the fact he's 121st in fly-ball rate (34.5%), but putting the ball in the air shouldn't be an issue against Zach Eflin on Monday. Along with Eflin being in the 34th percentile in barrel rate (10.8%), 10th percentile in hard-hit rate (56.8%), and 16th percentile in average exit velocity (93.0 MPH), he's producing a career-worst 48.6% fly-ball rate through his first 2 starts and 12.0 innings pitched.

Just a season ago, Eflin also recorded a 1.20 HR/9 and 42.3% fly-ball rate against left-handed batters, compared to a 1.19 HR/9 and 33.5% fly-ball rate when facing right-handed batters. With Eflin not throwing many pitches outside of the strike zone and Carroll getting off to a solid start this season, we'll back the talented outfielder from the Arizona Diamondbacks to go deep on Monday.

Jackson Merrill to Hit a Home Run (+520)

It has been an underwhelming start to the season for Luis Severino through his first 2 starts and 12.0 innings pitched for the Oakland Athletics, as he's currently in the 17th percentile in xERA (6.50), 42nd percentile in barrel rate (9.1%), and 39th percentile in average exit velocity (90.4 MPH). Those metrics aren't ideal ahead of a meeting withJackson Merrill and the San Diego Padres.

At the moment, Merrill is 37th in average exit velocity (93.1 MPH) and 14th in barrel rate (22.6%), prompting him to hit 3 homers across his first 41 plate appearances in 2025. Merrill excels at avoiding strikeouts at the plate with a K rate below 18.0% since the start of last season, and Severino is struggling to generate swings and misses, ranking in the 40th percentile in whiff rate (24.2%) and 17th percentile in chase rate (20.9%).

Sutter Health Park -- which is where the Athletics will play their home games for the next couple of seasons -- appears to be much more hitter-friendly than the Oakland Coliseum was, with the new venue sitting at 11th in park factor and 14th in home run park factor early in the new campaign. Being that winds are blowing out to center in Monday's contest, Merrill has a solid opportunity to hit his fourth dinger of the season.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.