3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Monday 4/28/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Ben Rice to Hit a Home Run (+520)

In his debut season for the Baltimore Orioles, Tomoyuki Sugano has mightily struggled to the tune of a 5.18 SIERA, 4.79 xFIP, and 7.0% swinging strike rate over his first 5 starts and 28.0 innings pitched. Additionally, Sugano is residing in the 9th percentile in xERA (6.11), 1st percentile in strikeout rate (8.0%), and 23rd percentile in barrel rate (11.2%), which could get him in plenty of trouble versus the New York Yankees.

Aside from Aaron Judge, Ben Rice has been one of the best power hitters for the Yankees to begin the campaign, ranking in the 95th percentile in xSLG (.604), 96th percentile in average exit velocity (94.8 MPH), 97th percentile in barrel rate (21.7%), and 98th percentile in hard-hit rate (60.0%). While Rice is in the 32nd percentile in strikeout rate (25.0%), Sugano's inability to generate swings and misses should lead to more batted balls for Rice in this matchup.

At the moment, Sugano also has the 13th-biggest difference (-0.123) between his SLG (.449) and xSLG (.572), so he's gotten a bit lucky up to this point. With Sugano coughing up two homers in back-to-back starts, I expect Rice and New York's lineup to wreak havoc at Camden Yards on Monday.

Austin Riley to Hit a Home Run (+390)

Even though winds are expected to be blowing in at Coors Field on Monday, the Atlanta Braves are still a team to target for homers in this matchup. While Ryan Feltner is arguably the Colorado Rockies' best starter right now, he's in the 12th percentile in average exit velocity (91.9 MPH), 31st percentile in strikeout rate (19.1%), and 38th percentile in hard-hit rate (42.3%).

Over the last two weeks, there hasn't been many batters hitting the ball harder than Austin Riley. During that two-week span, Riley is sporting the 14th-best average exit velocity (94.4 MPH), 4th-best barrel rate (27.3%), and 8th-best hard-hit rate (60.6%), which has led to him accumulating 4 long balls in that sample.

On the season, Riley is also sitting in the 85th percentile in xSLG (.519), 93rd percentile in average exit velocity (93.5 MPH), 98th percentile in barrel rate (23.0%), and 90th percentile in hard-hit rate (54.1%). If the Braves can get to Feltner early in Monday's contest, Riley should get a couple of opportunities against a Rockies bullpen that has the 6th-lowest strikeout rate (19.9%), 10th-worst HR/9 (1.04), and allowing the 6th-worst hard-hit rate (41.2%).

Freddie Freeman to Hit a Home Run (+540)

Edward Cabrera produced worse metrics against lefties a season ago, registering a .343 wOBA, 1.61 HR/9, and 21.2% strikeout rate in that split (compared to a .293 wOBA, 1.22 HR/9, and 30.1% strikeout rate against righties). Although Cabrera has logged only 3 starts and 14.2 innings pitched in 2025, those splits still seem to be an issue as he's giving up a .373 wOBA and 2.08 HR/9 versus left-handed hitters compared to a .299 wOBA and 1.50 HR/9 versus right-handed hitters.

Despite Freddie Freeman not being viewed as a slugger, he strings together good at-bats consistently, and his power metrics are impressive throughout his first 68 plate appearances this season. Entering Monday's matchup, Freeman ranks in the 97th percentile in xSLG (.629), 91st percentile in average exit velocity (93.2 MPH), 72nd percentile in barrel rate (12.2%), and 91st percentile in launch angle sweet-spot rate (42.9%).

There are definitely concerns with Cabrera's 25th percentile walk rate (11.9%), but his 47.5% flyball rate make him a premier target for dingers if Freeman and the Los Angeles Dodgers can put wood to leather. It should also be mentioned that Cabrera has yet to pitch into the sixth inning this year, and the Miami Marlins' bullpen is tallying the lowest strikeout rate (18.2%), 4th-worst HR/9 (1.27), 7th-worst flyball rate (40.5%), and 11th-worst barrel rate (8.8%).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.