3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Friday 7/11/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Jasson Domínguez to Hit a Home Run (+420)

The New York Yankees have a delightful home matchup against Chris Flexen, and while several of the Bronx Bombers carry short home run odds, Jasson Dominguez's +420 odds are pretty enticing.

Flexen has thrown 32 2/3 innings this year with the Chicago Cubs, and he's recorded a lowly 13.9% strikeout rate en route to a 4.58 SIERA. It was a similar story across 160 innings in 2024 as he pitched to a 4.95 SIERA and 17.4% K rate. He's given up 1.56 dingers per nine innings since the start of 2023.

Domínguez has been hitting leadoff lately, and righties are his preferred split as he owns a .364 wOBA and 44.4% hard-hit rate versus RHP.

Jonathan Aranda to Hit a Home Run (+600)

Hunter Dobbins is on the bump tonight at Fenway for the Boston Red Sox, and this is a good spot for lefty slugger Jonathan Aranda.

Dobbins has been solid, but he doesn't miss many bats, producing a 4.23 SIERA and 17.3% K rate. Across the board, his numbers are a little worse versus left-handed hitters with Dobbins sporting a 15.1% strikeout rate and .327 wOBA in the split.

Aranda is in the midst of a breakout campaign. He's launched 11 taters and holds a gaudy .404 expected wOBA. He does the majority of his damage against righties, mashing his way to a .403 wOBA, 41.4% hard-hit rate and 40.3% fly-ball rate in the split.

While the wind is blowing in at 5 MPH from right, which isn't ideal, these are fairly long odds for a top-tier slugger in a good matchup.

Bryce Harper to Hit a Home Run (+340)

A matchup with Ryan Bergert puts the Philadelphia Phillies' offense in a good spot, and I'm backing Bryce Harper to go deep.

Despite a 2.67 ERA, Bergert's first 27 MLB frames point to some rough times ahead. He's the owner of a 4.67 SIERA and 7.1% swinging-strike rate while surrendering a 47.3% fly-ball rate. He's given up a lowly 5.7% homer-to-fly-ball rate, but that is bound to rise as his Triple-A homer-to-fly-ball rate this year was 19.5%.

Enter Harper.

Harper is having another really good season, generating a .384 expected wOBA and 44.6% fly-ball rate. With the platoon advantage, he's got a .371 wOBA and 46.9% fly-ball rate. He popped a homer and three doubles last night and can keep the good times rolling today.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.