3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Friday 5/9/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Kyle Schwarber to Hit a Home Run (+360)

Hitting dingers isn't a rare occurrence for Kyle Schwarber, who is tied for the league lead with 12 home runs while ranking fourth in ISO (.308) across his first 165 plate appearances in 2025. Schwarber has always excelled at drawing walks at the plate, but the left-handed slugger is also posting a career-best 20.0% strikeout rate so far, which has led to him recording career-highs in wOBA (.421) and wRC+ (169) up to this point.

Entering Friday's matchup against Gavin Williams and the Cleveland Guardians, Schwarber also sits in the 97th percentile in xSLG (.602), 96th percentile in average exit velocity (94.2 MPH), 81st percentile in barrel rate (14.0%), and 98th percentile in hard-hit rate (59.0%). Schwarber has also been on a tear recently, totaling five homers over his last nine contests.

Throughout his first 7 starts and 32.0 innings pitched, Williams is ranked in the 10th percentile in xERA (5.81), 29th percentile in average exit velocity (90.4 MPH), 21st percentile in barrel rate (11.1%), and 32nd percentile in hard-hit rate (43.3%). Along with Williams permitting a 1.50 HR/9 and 37.0% flyball rate to left-handed hitters this season, Cleveland's bullpen is also logging the 4th-worst average exit velocity (90.1 MPH), 5th-worst hard-hit rate (42.6%), and 11th-highest flyball rate (38.3%).

Manny Machado to Hit a Home Run (+350)

Over the past two weeks of action, there haven't been many players hitting the baseball harder than Manny Machado, who is tallying the 9th-best average exit velocity (95.6 MPH) and 10th-best hard-hit rate (60.6%) during that span. Despite Machado having only three homers to his name so far, a matchup at Coors Field against Antonio Senzatela and the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies could be exactly what he needs to begin a power surge.

Simply put, Senzatela has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season, residing in the 3rd percentile in xERA (7.01), 1st percentile in strikeout rate (10.6%), 16th percentile in barrel rate (11.9%), and 12th percentile in hard-hit rate (48.1%). On top of that, Senzatela is producing reverse splits on the mound, giving up a .477 wOBA, 4.11 HR/9, and 41.0% flyball rate versus righties (compared to a .402 wOBA, 0.47 HR/9, and 20.5% flyball rate versus lefties).

Even though Machado has a low home run total right now, he is still in the 90th percentile in xSLG (.558), 93rd percentile in average exit velocity (93.2 MPH), 70th percentile in barrel rate (11.9%), 97th percentile in hard-hit rate (56.9%), and 80th percentile in launch angle sweet-spot rate (39.4%). Once Senzatela exits Friday's contest, Machado will also have an opportunity to tee off on Colorado's bullpen, which has the 4th-worst SIERA (4.21), 10th-worst average exit velocity (89.1 MPH), and 8th-worst hard-hit rate (40.7%).

Will Smith to Hit a Home Run (+540)

Eduardo Rodriguez has put together solid numbers this season for the Arizona Diamondbacks, earning the 27th-best SIERA (3.41) and 25th-best strikeout rate (26.5%) among pitchers with 30-plus innings pitched in 2025. That being said, Rodriguez can sometimes waver when facing right-handed hitters, coughing up a .368 wOBA and 1.93 HR/9 in that split (compared to a .349 wOBA and 0.90 HR/9 against left-handed hitters).

Given E Rod's woes versus righties, Will Smith is someone who catches my eye in the home run market, especially with his recent power metrics. Across the last two weeks, Smith is 26th in average exit velocity (93.6 MPH), 29th in barrel rate (17.2%), and 9th in hard-hit rate (62.1%).

Although it's a small sample size to begin the new campaign, Smith boasts the best wOBA (.538), best wRC+ (250), and best ISO (.409) versus southpaws of the players on the Los Angeles Dodgers who are active. Smith also possesses a .205 ISO or better against each of Rodriguez's three primary pitches versus right-handed batters (four-seam fastball, changeup, and cutter).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.