3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Friday 5/23/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Jake Burger to Hit a Home Run (+350)

A revenge spot isn't a bad way to start Friday's bomb squad.

Before 2025, Jake Burger's best work came with the Chicago White Sox, but he's now doing his best to keep a mediocre Texas Rangers offense afloat. Against right-handers, Burger has just 3 home runs in 105 plate appearances (PAs), but more dingers are coming. He's got a massive flyball (42.0%) and hard-hit rate (44.0%) in the split.

Today's matchup only amplifies his chances. Chicago will send out righty Sean Burke, who ranks 16th percentile in barrel rate (11.7%) with a majority of his contact resulting in flyballs (45.0%). The Pale Hose's 'pen is also surrendering 1.25 HR/9 (third-most in MLB) after he departs.

Our MLB home run projections expect 0.30 round-trippers from the third baseman, implying closer to +285 for at least one.

Jorge Polanco to Hit a Home Run (+470)

Though it seems Jorge Polanco's hot start is fading, this is too much disrespect to ignore him against the Houston Astros tonight.

Polanco still has 10 home runs in 127 PAs against right-handed pitching overall this year -- even if only one of those has come since May 1st. His hard-hit rate in the split since the start of the month (44.3%) is actually still ideal, but a 23.7% flyball rate has shown limited loft in a small sample.

Overall, the switch-hitter's .304 ISO versus righties seems primed to damage Ryan Gusto. Gusto's own issues with flyballs (46.3% rate) should help with loft, and the inaptly named hurler is 35th percentile or worse across baseball in hard-hit rate (46.3%) and barrel rate (9.5%).

Still projected to hit second for the Seattle Mariners, we've got Polanco projected for 0.30 median homers. That's great value at these odds if correct.

Ketel Marte to Hit a Home Run (+390)

We'll add another second baseman to the card here.

In 21.2 innings against left-handed batters, Miles Mikolas has allowed just two home runs. That will change when the veteran has allowed a 46.8% flyball and 38.0% hard-hit rate to lefties, and he's been insanely lucky all season to allow just a 3.1% homer-to-flyball ratio (HR:FB) overall. The league average is 11.5%.

Ketel Marte will be a lefty when Mikolas is in the game, and he's smashed the opposite-handed split this season for a 1.111 OPS, .368 ISO, 39.6% flyball rate, and 41.7% hard-hit rate. That's amounted to 6 home runs in just 68 PAs. The St. Louis Cardinals' 22nd-ranked reliever skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) should mean a quality chance or two after Mikolas departs, as well.

FDR has Marte projected for 0.37 home runs, implying closer to +223 odds for a bomb. He's the projections' second-best pick for a home run today regardless of odds.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.