3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Friday 5/16/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Riley Greene to Hit a Home Run (+340)

Bowden Francis is registering the worst HR/9 (3.12) and eighth-worst HR/FB rate (23.7%) against left-handed hitters across his first 8 starts and 41.2 innings pitched this season. Taking that into account, Riley Greene and the other lefties on the Detroit Tigers could be in store for an explosive outing at the plate in Friday's contest at Rogers Centre.

Against right-handed pitching, Green is sporting a .393 wOBA, 159 wRC+, and .278 ISO (compared to a .276 wOBA, 77 wRC+, and .100 ISO versus left-handed pitching). Over the last 14 days, Greene is also posting the 20th-best average exit velocity (94.1 MPH) and 5th-best barrel rate (26.5%), which has led to him recording the 16th-best ISO (.326) during that span.

Aside from Francis' woeful metrics against left-handed batters, he's also in the 5th percentile in xERA (6.25), 16th percentile in average exit velocity (91.1 MPH), 19th percentile in strikeout rate (17.0%), 13th percentile in barrel rate (12.0%), and 5th percentile in hard-hit rate (50.4%). The Toronto Blue Jays also have a bullpen we can target for dingers, as they are logging the fifth-worst average exit velocity (89.5 MPH), second-worst barrel rate (11.7%), fifth-worst hard-hit rate (42.4%), and eighth-worst HR/9 (1.12).

Lourdes Gurriel to Hit a Home Run (+600)

At the moment, reports suggest that the Colorado Rockies are going to promote Carson Palmquist from Triple-A to make his first career start in the majors on Friday. While Palmquist has tallied a 29.0% strikeout rate or better and a 1.15 HR/9 or better across his last two years at the Triple-A level, the Arizona Diamondbacks aren't exactly a welcoming team to face in your debut.

With Palmquist being a soft-tossing southpaw, I'm willing to take a flier on Lourdes Gurriel to homer at these odds before it's confirmed that Palmquist is starting. Besides Palmquist giving up a 46.1% flyball rate or worse in each of his last two seasons, Gurriel is producing a .360 wOBA, 128 wRC+, .262 ISO, and 13.3% strikeout rate versus lefties (compared to a .270 wOBA, 68 wRC+, .183 ISO, and 13.8% strikeout rate versus righties).

Along with Gurriel notching a .419 wOBA, 168 wRC+, and .288 ISO since the start of May, he should bat third in Arizona's lineup with a left-handed starter on the bump. Considering that Palmquist is making his debut and may not pitch deep into Friday's contest, it's worth noting that Colorado's bullpen is registering the 10th-worst hard-hit rate (40.6%), 12th-worst HR/9 (1.05), and lowest strikeout rate (19.5%).

Freddie Freeman to Hit a Home Run (+330)

Freddie Freeman was someone I recommended yesterday to send one into the bleachers, but he failed to hit a long ball despite the Los Angeles Dodgers racking up 5 homers and 19 runs against the Oakland Athletics. Despite Freeman's shortcomings in the home run column on Thursday, I'll be going right back to him in Friday's favorable matchup against Jack Kochanowicz and the bullpen of the Los Angeles Angels.

Ahead of his ninth start in 2025, Kochanowicz is coughing up the 16th-worst HR/9 (2.31) and 6th-lowest strikeout rate (11.7%) versus left-handed hitters. Kochanowicz is also ranked in the 22nd percentile in xERA (4.80), 16th percentile in average exit velocity (91.1 MPH), 3rd percentile in strikeout rate (12.9%), 38th percentile in barrel rate (9.2%), and 19th percentile in hard-hit rate (46.1%).

On the flip side, Freeman is crushing righties to the tune of a .494 wOBA, 221 wRC+, and .344 ISO (compared to a .402 wOBA, 159 wRC+, and .276 ISO when facing lefties). And once Kochanowicz -- who has pitched fewer than six innings in five of his last seven starts -- exits Friday's showdown, he'll give way to an Angels' bullpen that has the worst average exit velocity (91.0 MPH), worst barrel rate (12.0%), worst hard-hit rate (45.5%), and worst HR/9 (1.86).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.