3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Friday 4/25/24

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

George Springer to Hit a Home Run (+560)

Considering both George Springer's underlying metrics and his plus matchup against veteran right-hander Carlos Carrasco -- not to mention a hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium -- this looks like a great value for a Springer home run.

Beginning with Springer himself, while he has just two round-trippers so far, he's above the 80th percentile in barrel rate, maximum exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xSLG, and xISO. He also hasn't been hitting as many grounders (38.0% rate) compared to recent campaigns. More dingers should be coming sooner rather than later.

Meanwhile, Carrasco comes into the day with a 5.14 xERA, 16.7% strikeout rate, and 38.2% ground-ball rate. Dating back to the start of 2023, he's given up 1.80 HR/9 across his last 214 1/3 innings.

Tonight's total between the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees is also one of the highest of the slate (9.5), which should further encourage us to take the plunge here.

Ben Rice to Hit a Home Run (+430)

The higher total also means the favored Yankees should make some noise at the plate, too, and Ben Rice has been demolishing the ball over the opening month.

Rice has been a Statcast darling, which includes rocking an absurd 64.2% hard-hit rate (100th percentile), 24.5% barrel rate (98th percentile), and 95.2 mph average exit velocity (97th percentile). That's led to him shooting up to the 98th percentile in both xSLG and xISO.

While Rice figures to cool off, it's not like he didn't show power in 2024 (15.6% barrel rate), and this is a good matchup against Toronto righty Jose Berrios.

Berrios has put up a 4.69 xERA and 19.8% K rate over five starts while allowing 1.88 HR/9. He also gave up 1.45 HR/9 in 2024, so the long ball hasn't been a new development.

Rice is dialed in at the plate right now, and as a left-handed batter, he'll also have the platoon advantage versus Berrios. Batting leadoff also gives him a better shot at snagging an extra plate appearance late in the game, as well.

Tyler Soderstrom to Hit a Home Run (+320)

Tyler Soderstrom didn't get us a dinger yesterday, but he did get two hits off of Jacob deGrom, both of which were hit 100+ mph on exit velocity, and he also cracked a fly out to center against the Texas Rangers bullpen that went 101 mph and 384 feet. In all, he made enough loud contact to feel good about his performance despite the lack of a home run.

With that in mind, we're going back to the well tonight, and it's safe to say Chicago White Sox starter Sean Burke doesn't exactly have the track record of someone like deGrom.

Through five starts, Burke has been shelled for a 6.23 ERA, and to make matters worse, his xERA is actually even higher at 8.85. The combination of a 14.7% strikeout rate (12th percentile) and 17.3% barrel rate (5th percentile) has contributed to him already coughing up 6 home runs.

As a refresher, Soderstrom is tied for the league lead in home runs (9) and ranks seventh in ISO (.323). Those marks are backed by a hefty 20.3% barrel rate and 43.2% fly-ball rate. Against a struggling pitcher, Soderstrom has a great opportunity to reach double-digit dingers for the season on Friday.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.