3 Best MLB Bets, Player Props and Home Run Picks for Mets at Brewers, Game 3

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From moneylines to player props to home runs, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's MLB predictions and FanDuel Research's MLB projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets and Player Props

Over 7.5 (-106)

In Thursday's win-or-go-home contest between the New York Mets and Milwaukee Brewers, it will be Jose Quintana pitching for the Mets and Tobias Myers on the mound for the Brewers. While Quintana performed well down the stretch -- allowing three earned runs across his final five starts -- Milwaukee gets to face a lefty starter for the second consecutive day.

With 31 starts under his belt this season, Quintana owns a 4.58 SIERA and 4.44 xFIP while residing in the 25th percentile in xERA (4.49) and 25th percentile in xBA (.259). Quintana also ranks in the 18th percentile in strikeout rate (18.8%) and 79th percentile in ground-ball rate (48.2%), so he doesn't miss bats much, and he relies heavily on keeping the ball out of the air.

Nevertheless, he is giving up a .308 wOBA, 4.65 xFIP, and 1.26 WHIP when facing right-handed hitters, and Milwaukee can deploy seven or eight righties in their lineup.

On the other hand, Myers' 3.99 SIERA -- compared to his 4.11 xERA -- suggests he got a bit lucky in his 25 starts and 2 relief appearances in 2024. Myers also isn't much of a strikeout pitcher with a 44th percentile K rate (22.3%) and 14th percentile whiff rate (21.1%).

The Brewers haven't allowed either of their starters in this series to pitch longer than four innings, but there has still been eight-plus runs scored in both meetings thus far. Even though both bullpens have been active in the series, we've seen four-plus runs scored in the fifth inning or later in both contests, making it possible that runs in the latter part of the game lead to the over hitting.

Jackson Chourio to Record a Run (-110)

What a fantastic showing it was for rookie Jackson Chourio in Game 2 on Wednesday, going 2-for-4 with 2 HRs, 2 RBIs, and 2 runs scored for the Brewers. While Chourio typically hasn't hit for power versus southpaws this year, he took Manaea deep in the first inning of Wednesday's win.

Chourio has been consistently hitting out of the leadoff spot for Milwaukee, and he's recorded at least one hit in 9 of his last 11 outings. The first-year outfielder is finding ways to get on base often with two-plus hits in three of his last four contests, putting him in a solid spot to score a run on Thursday.

Once again, Quintana's splits against right-handed batters aren't great, and he owns a 44.5% ground-ball rate and 37.2% fly-ball rate to righties (compared to a 56.9% ground-ball rate and 27.6% fly-ball rate to lefties). Chourio isn't a left-handed hitter, and the Brewers likely won't deploy many lefties to begin Thursday's crucial matchup.

Having someone like William Contreras hitting two spots behind him should help Chourio as Contreras boasts a .379 wOBA, 145 wRC+, and .174 ISO versus left-handed pitching. If Chourio can continue his recent stretch of getting on base, there's a decent chance he can cross home plate with the Brewers loading up on righties against Quintana.

Today's Best Home Run Prop Bet

Francisco Lindor to Hit a Home Run (+480)

It has been a quiet series from Francisco Lindor, going 0-for-6 with 1 RBI, 1 run, and 3 walks through the first 2 games of the series. The switch-hitting shortstop has yet to get in the hit column this series, but there's a chance he does so with a home run on Thursday.

Myers is permitting a .320 wOBA, 1.36 WHIP, and 1.24 HR/9 to left-handed hitters compared to a .275 wOBA, 1.00 WHIP, and 1.11 HR/9 to right-handed hitters. Additionally, Myers' 38.5% hard-hit rate, 7.7% barrel rate, and 40.6% fly-ball rate suggest he can be susceptible to homers at times.

As for Lindor, he is sporting a formidable .361 wOBA, 136 wRC+, and .208 ISO when facing right-handed pitchers. Even when Myers exits the contest, Lindor will always have the platoon advantage as a switch-hitter, and he is rocking a .370 wOBA, 142 wRC+, and .282 ISO against lefties if the Brewers bring in a left-handed reliever.

Among players with 60-plus plate appearances in the last month, Lindor has the 16th-best wOBA (.401), 13th-best wRC+ (163), and 15th-best ISO (.278). In that same 30-day sample, Lindor also has a solid 13.0% barrel rate and 47.8% hard-hit rate, to go along with a 26.3% HR/FB rate.

While Lindor has been walked plenty during this series, all he needs is one chance to put the ball in the air to hit his 34th homer of the season.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.