3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Wednesday 6/25/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles

Under 4.5 First 5 Innings Total Runs (-114)

The Texas Rangers come off a 6-5 win against the Baltimore Orioles, but will that success continue on Wednesday? Texas is shaping up to have a clear advantage in pitching as Jacob deGrom will take the mound while Baltimore's Brandon Young is making only his third career start in the big leagues.

deGrom taking the mound paired with a favorable matchup for Young turns my attention to under 4.5 runs in the first five innings.

deGrom continues to post exceptional numbers with a 2.24 ERA, 2.97 xERA, 3.32 SIERA, and 3.26 xFIP. Over his previous nine starts, deGrom has an elite 1.95 ERA. The Orioles have posted the 8th-fewest runs and 12th-lowest batting average against right-handed hurlers. deGrom's slider (39.0% usage rate) sports his best put away rate, and Baltimore has the 10th-fewest runs above average against the pitch.

Meanwhile, Young has struggled through two starts to begin his MLB career with a 6.23 ERA. His 5.65 SIERA and 5.13 xFIP suggest the struggles aren't going anywhere anytime soon. He's failed to finish the fifth inning in either of his starts but has still managed to give up three earned runs in both appearances. Texas totals the fifth-fewest runs per game, though, and Young faced teams in the top 12 of run production in his first two starts.

Pitch usage is actually a nice advantage for Young, too. He features four pitches, including a four-seam fastball (35.8%), cutter (23.3%), curveball (21.6%), and changeup (19.3%). The Rangers are in the bottom three of runs above average against three of those offerings. With only 3.0 runs per game over the last 10 from Texas, Wednesday could feature Young's first strong start in the majors.

Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardians

Under 8.5 Runs (-120)

The Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Guardians featured a ton of production in Tuesday's contest with a 10-6 final. However, tonight's total wasn't swayed too much by Tuesday, sitting at 8.5 runs. Which side is the best bet?

It's been almost three months since Max Scherzer's Jays debut. He's set to make his second appearance of the season tonight, returning from a thumb injury. With Scherzer a three-time Cy Young winner, we know what he is capable of. However, he's likely in store for a shortened start. Toronto has an excellent bullpen, holding the 12th-lowest ERA and 2nd-lowest SIERA. Plus, Cleveland is in the bottom 10 of runs above average against three of Scherzer's top four most-used pitches.

For the Guardians, Gavin Williams will make the start, and he is boasting a 1.99 ERA over four starts in June. Allowing 1.19 HR/9 is one of his weaknesses, but the Blue Jays have the 11th-lowest home run percentage. Toronto also carries the ninth-fewest runs above average against four-seam fastballs, and this is Williams' most-used pitch with a 42.7% usage rate. Cleveland has a quality bullpen to back up Williams, touting the 15th-lowest ERA and 10th-lowest SIERA.

Ultimately, the Jays rank 15th in runs scored while the Guardians are 25th. Neither one of these batting orders are keeping pitches up at night.

New York Yankees at Cincinnati Reds

Under 4.5 First 5 Innings Total Runs (-108)

The New York Yankees are in danger of being swept by the Cincinnati Reds, and these struggles extend beyond just this series with the Yanks 3-7 over the previous 10. Cincinnati is on the opposite end of the spectrum by winning 7 of its last 10.

An advantage in the starting hurler matchup has led to New York listed at -142 odds to cover a -1.5 run line. Max Fried has been fantastic through 16 starts with a 2.05 ERA, 3.19 SIERA, and 3.10 xFIP. The Reds have posted the 12th-fewest runs scored and the 5th-lowest batting average against left-handed pitches. Plus, Cincy is in the bottom nine for runs above average against cutters -- one of Fried's two most-used pitches.

Fried can certainly do his part in limiting run production in the early going, but what about Brady Singer? Following a successful 2024 season with a 3.71 ERA, Singer hasn't found the same success with his 4.13 ERA and 4.60 SIERA. However, he's improved over his last six starts with a 2.91 ERA in that time.

It's difficult to find any pitch the Yankees struggle against, but Singer has an advantage thanks to his 32.7% slider usage rate. New York posts the 13th-fewest runs above average against this pitch, meaning Singer's second most-used pitch should hold plenty of weight. Plus, he's ceded only two home runs over his last six outings so perhaps he can limit the Yanks' third-highest home run rate.

Fried seems in store for a long, deep start. We just need a solid showing from Singer, and the under for the first five innings should succeed.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.