3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Wednesday 4/9/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners

Astros -1.5 (+134)

This looks like a pitching mismatch between Hunter Brown and Luis F. Castillo, which leads me to think the Houston Astros can cover the spread against the Seattle Mariners.

Brown is coming off a breakout 2024 campaign and hasn't missed a beat this season, logging a 2.27 SIERA, 33.3% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate, and 63.0% ground-ball rate over his two starts. It sure looks like another strong campaign should be coming.

On the other hand, Castillo -- not to be confused with the more well-known Luis Castillo -- has a less encouraging track record. The 30-year-old is coming off his first MLB appearance since 2022, and it was a rather forgettable one, allowing three earned runs in three innings to the San Francisco Giants with two walks and two punchouts. Those Ks amounted to a mere 11.1% strikeout rate, and in his prior Triple-A start, he similarly failed to generate strikeouts (9.5%).

While Castillo had a productive campaign in Japan last season, he produced just a 19.6% strikeout rate, so he could continue to have a tough time racking up punchouts.

Both active rosters have been roughly average offenses against right-handed pitching dating back to last year, so this huge gap in pitching talent should give the Astros enough of an advantage to come away with an empathic win.

Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox

Over 8.5 Runs (+100)

While temperatures in the 40s won't help hitting in Boston tonight, a pair of vulnerable pitchers combined with capable offenses at hitter-friendly Fenway Park ought to get the Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox to combine for nine or more runs.

Toronto right-hander Kevin Gausman has gotten decent results over his two starts, but that's been aided by a lucky .094 BABIP that hides a 5.91 SIERA and 9.8% strikeout rate. Incredibly, Gausman had zero strikeouts over 5 1/3 innings against the New York Mets his last time out. Given that he's coming off a generally disappointing campaign where his K rate plummeted to 21.4%, this is hardly a promising sign.

Boston's Tanner Houck hasn't exactly been lights out, either. Typically a ground-ball pitcher, Houck hasn't had that part of his game working through his two games (41.4% GB rate), and when that's thrown in with an 18.6% strikeout rate, 11.6% walk rate, and 65.5% hard-hit rate, you get a 6.24 xERA.

Both pitchers should improve over time, but this might not be the night for that. Going back to the start of 2024, the Red Sox's active roster actually boasts the league's best wRC+ (123) against righties while the Blue Jays aren't far behind in sixth (112).

In spite of the colder conditions, we shouldn't be surprised if these teams are busy at the plate on Wednesday.

Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals

Twins ML (-112)

While I liked the Kansas City Royals in yesterday's matchup against the Minnesota Twins, the Twins should have the edge this time around.

Joe Ryan gets the nod for Minnesota and has been a mixed bag through his first two outings. However, the underlying numbers have generally been positive as he's yet to allow a single walk while posting a 2.99 SIERA and 26.2% strikeout rate. The right-hander has consistently been stronger in same-handed matchups over his career (30.4% K rate versus righties in 2024), which should help him silence the dangerous bats of Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez.

The Royals will have righty Seth Lugo on the mound, and while he's had better results than Ryan thus far, his underlying numbers are much more concerning. Across his two starts, Lugo has put up a 5.06 SIERA, 14.0% strikeout rate, and 9.3% walk rate, and he's notably managed just a 4.1% swinging-strike rate.

The Twins rate out as the better offense against right-handers, as well. Dating back to last season, Minnesota's active roster has a 112 wRC+ in the split while Kansas City is at a 104 wRC+.

In all, this looks like a spot where the Twins ought to come through in what's essentially being priced as a toss-up.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.