3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Wednesday 4/23/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Baltimore Orioles at Washington Nationals

Nationals Over 4.5 Runs (+104)

Following an excellent career in Japan, 35-year-old righty Tomoyuki Sugano was signed by the Baltimore Orioles this offseason, and while the results have been mostly positive so far, Sugano's underlying metrics have been concerning across four starts.

Sugano has posted a 3.43 ERA with an impeccable 5.7% walk rate, but he simply isn't missing many bats, as shown by a 9.2% strikeout rate (second percentile) and 17.1% whiff rate (seventh percentile). Add in below-average marks in barrel rate and hard-hit rate, and his xERA spits out to a worrisome 6.42.

In-season projections for Sugano on FanGraphs aren't especially optimistic, either, and THE BAT goes as far as forecasting a 5.78 ERA over the long haul.

The Washington Nationals' active roster has been slightly above average versus righties this season, and they most notably boast the league's best K rate (17.6%) in the split. Against a pitcher who looks due for regression, backing the Nats to score five or more runs at plus money is intriguing.

Tampa Bay Rays at Arizona Diamondbacks

Diamondbacks -1.5 (+132)

While we should expect the Tampa Bay Rays to put up a fight in this one, the Arizona Diamondbacks have enough advantages to consider taking the value pricing we're getting on the run line.

One reason to like Arizona tonight is southpaw starter Eduardo Rodriguez. E-Rod's had mixed results across his four outings, but we should have full confidence in him going forward, as he's put up a stellar 2.88 xERA, 2.46 xFIP, 30.2% strikeout rate, and 6.3% walk rate. He should be able to get the job done versus a Rays lineup that's roughly league average versus left-handers dating back to last season.

The Rays will have Taj Bradley on the mound, and he's more or less alternated good and bad performances. He's managed a solid 3.71 xERA and 25.3% K rate, but walks have been a problem (10.5% rate).

However, the main reason to once again be bullish on the Diamondbacks is that they've been lethal against righties this year. In the split, Arizona's active roster is second in wRC+ (131), first in ISO (.247), and sixth in walk rate (10.6%).

Both bullpens have been excellent, but the Diamondbacks could even have the edge there, as their relievers lead MLB in xFIP (2.84).

With Arizona arguably having both the pitching and hitting advantage, they should have a good shot at covering on Wednesday.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Angels

Pirates ML (+118)

Andrew Heaney hasn't always been the most trustworthy pitcher over the years, but he's off to an encouraging start and could help the Pittsburgh Pirates win as underdogs against the Los Angeles Angels.

Through his four starts, Heaney has a sparkling 2.13 ERA, and while his 3.19 xERA is over a full run higher, we'll gladly take it. The left-hander's 22.4% strikeout rate doesn't leap off the page, but he's done a good job of limiting both walks (6.1% rate), hard hits (35.3% rate), and barrels (5.9%).

Heaney could also get an assist from the Angels. Although it's a small sample, the Halos have the fourth-worst K rate (26.6%) and worst walk rate (3.9%) versus left-handed pitching in 2025.

On the other side, the Pirates might not have the most exciting lineup, but their matchup against right-hander Jack Kochanowicz should help them get going.

Kochanowicz has been rocked for a 6.20 ERA, and a 4.95 xERA and 11.2% strikeout rate don't inspire a ton of confidence. The 24-year-old typically relies on a high ground-ball rate to get outs, but he's induced a mere 37.1% GB rate against lefty sticks this season, and three of the first four projected Pittsburgh batters will bat left-handed, including dangerous leadoff man Oneil Cruz.

The Pirates should be game for the upset tonight, and this is an appealing price point to back them.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.