3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Tuesday 4/8/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates

Cardinals ML (+110)

Going against Paul Skenes might not feel wise, but Sonny Gray is a pretty good pitcher himself, and with the St. Louis Cardinals having an edge over the Pittsburgh Pirates on offense, it isn't crazy to consider backing the Cardinals at plus money.

Skenes has picked up right where he left off last year, posting a stellar 2.37 SIERA, 29.5% strikeout rate, and 4.5% walk rate through two starts. Let's just say we shouldn't expect a sophomore slump.

But Gray's underlying numbers have been rather similar, as he's put up a 2.59 SIERA, 33.3% strikeout rate, and 4.4% walk rate. The difference is that unlike Skenes, the results haven't followed, and he's posted a 5.37 ERA and already allowed 3 home runs.

That because Gray has allowed far more hard contact, sitting in the 15th percentile or worse in both barrel rate and hard-hit rate. However, despite that, he's still managed a respectable 4.11 xERA, and he's consistently stayed between an 3.77-3.67 xERA in each of the past three campaigns.

Further, Pittsburgh is a team that's less likely to knock one out of the park, particularly with temperatures below 40 degrees. In addition to their active roster ranking 25th in wRC+ against righties (94) dating back to last year, they're also a mere 26th in ISO (.141).

In that split, the Cardinals' bats are 13th in wRC (106), and while they also lack power (.139 ISO), they could give Skenes trouble by owning the fourth-lowest K rate (18.7%).

With the easier matchup on tap, Gray has a reasonable shot of keeping pace with Skenes tonight, and that suggests there's value in siding with St. Louis.

Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals

Royals ML (-120)

This one is more straightforward, as there's a case that the Kansas City Royals have both the pitching and hitting advantage in tonight's matchup versus the Minnesota Twins.

Over his first two starts, Kansas City's Cole Ragans has recorded a 1.86 xERA, 3.22 SIERA, 29.5% strikeout rate, and 9.1% walk rate. Other than the walk rate maybe being a smidge high, we'll gladly take those marks, and the lefty is fresh off a strong 2024 campaign, as well.

Meanwhile, Minnesota's Pablo Lopez has solid if unspectacular marks in xERA (3.97) and SIERA (3.85) across his first two games, but his biggest concern is a 16.7% K rate. His 24.3% CSW rate is over 3 percentage points lower than last year, and he most recently faced the Chicago White Sox, possibly the league's worst offense, but managed just a 19.2% strikeout rate against them.

Offensively, the Royals' active roster has a 104 wRC+ against right-handers since the start of 2024, and their 18.9% K rate won't make things any easier on Lopez. In contrast to this, the Twins have an 89 wRC+ and 24.2% strikeout rate over that time frame versus southpaws, so Ragans has the right opponent to perform well.

Considering all of the above, this looks like an appropriate spot to back the Royals as slight favorites.

Baltimore Orioles at Arizona Diamondbacks

Over 9.5 Runs (-102)

This matchup at Chase Field won't be affected by the frigid conditions we're seeing in a number of games today, giving us one of the slate's better hitting environments, and when we throw in a pair of struggling pitchers and above-average lineups, we should see a fair bit of scoring here.

Baltimore Orioles right-hander Charlie Morton is coming off a 10-strikeout game against the Boston Red Sox, but that's about the only positive through two starts. He's been crushed by hard contact, owning poor marks in hard-hit rate (1st percentile), average exit velocity (2nd percentile), and barrel rate (13th percentile) -- and the end result has been an ugly 5.86 xERA.

Further, reaching double-digit Ks shouldn't be the norm at 41 years old. He posted a 23.8% strikeout rate in 2024, and his 26.4% CSW rate so far in 2025 is actually lower than last season's mark.

On the other side, arguably nothing has gone right for Merrill Kelly in his two outings. After getting shelled by the New York Yankees his last time out, he comes in with an 11.03 xERA, 6.5% strikeout rate, and 15.2% walk rate. It's hard to find many positives when you aren't getting Ks, limiting walks, or suppressing hard contact.

Since the start of 2024, both active rosters are inside the top 12 in wRC+ versus righties with Baltimore at 111 and Arizona at 109. While the Orioles' Gunnar Henderson hasn't gotten going at the plate yet, his recent return to the lineup should pay dividends sooner rather than later.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.