3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Thursday 5/15/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays

Over 8.0 Runs (-115)

The first two games of a three-game series between the Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays featured run totals of 20 and 4. Similar to the past two matchups, the total is set at 8.0 yet again. Which side is the most promising for the series finale?

Zack Littell has a 4.40 ERA, 4.47 SIERA, and 4.40 xFIP for Tampa. For the Blue Jays, Kevin Gausman touts a 3.97 ERA, 3.88 SIERA, and 3.95 xFIP. A dominant starter could be lacking, providing support for the over -- but let's dig into each matchup.

While the Blue Jays are posting only 0.83 home runs per game (fifth-fewest), they've hit at least one homer in six consecutive games. Plus, Toronto is averaging 1.67 big flies per contest over the last six. Littell has struggled with allowing extra-base hits, ranking in the 10th percentile of barrel rate allowed and 20th percentile of hard-hit percentage allowed. His 1.91 HR/9 allowed does enough talking, and the Jays are in the top 16 of runs above average against two of his most-used pitches (four-seam fastball and splitter).

Gausman has similar concerns, especially after ceding seven hits and three earned runs in his most recent outing. He's also struggled with power hitting, ranking in the 11th and 22nd percentiles of barrel and hard-hit rates allowed, respectively. While Tampa Bay has the sixth-lowest SLG, its improved in this series with a pair of doubles in the previous game and a double and three home runs coming in Game 1. The Rays also have the 12th-most runs above average against four-seam fastballs, and Gausman has a 55.9% usage rate for this pitch.

Houston Astros at Texas Rangers

Under 7.0 Runs (-102)

Astros Moneyline (+104)

While the 7.0-run total for the Houston Astros-Texas Rangers is the lowest of today's slate, the under remains an intriguing pick. Neither batting order has enjoyed much success, with both sitting in the bottom 12 of runs scored. Plus, two dominant starters will be on the mound tonight.

For the Astros, Hunter Brown is enjoying career-best marks in nearly every category thus far, boasting a 1.48 ERA, 2.82 SIERA, and 2.65 xFIP. Touting the 13th-highest home run percentage is one of the Rangers' few strengths when they're batting. However, Brown hasn't allowed a dinger in seven straight starts while boasting 0.18 HR/9 allowed for the year. Texas is also in the bottom 11 of runs above average against three of Brown's four most-used pitches (four-seam fastball, knuckle curve, and changeup).

Jacob deGrom has dealt with nonstop injuries since 2020, but he's still providing exceptional numbers when he is healthy. With eight appearances this campaign, he already has his most starts since 2022. deGrom's numbers continue to look solid, including a 2.72 ERA, 3.22 SIERA, and 3.38 xFIP. This SIERA would be his highest mark since 2019, but that speaks to how amazing he's been in the past.

Instead of relying on homers like the Rangers do, the Astros look to make contact with the 13th-highest batting average and 14th-most hits per game. However, opponents are batting only .215 against deGrom thus far, and Houston is in the bottom half of runs above average against four-seam fastballs and sliders -- which are deGrom's most-used tools.

Even both bullpens are solid, ranking in the top half of ERA and SIERA. Considering each starter is in the 70th percentile or higher in most of Savant's categories, this is gearing up to be a low-scoring battle.

If runs are rare like diamonds, the level of pitching just becomes even more important in this bout. Of the two, I'd give the Astros an edge. The bullpen ranks 2nd and 4th in ERA and SIERA, respectively, while the Rangers are 14th and 15th. Additionally, Brown simply has better numbers right now. deGrom's 3.38 xFIP compared to Brown's mark of 2.65 is one of several numbers we should not ignore.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.