3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Thursday 5/1/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies

Phillies Over 5.5 Runs (-102)

The Philadelphia Phillies are in the top 12 of batting average, wOBA, and runs per game. They get a favorable matchup tonight against the Washington Nationals, who are in the bottom five of batting average, wOBA, and runs per game allowed.

Additionally, the Nats are putting a susceptible starter on the bump in Brad Lord. The rookie began the year as a reliever in his first three appearances, but he's started his last four outings. In those starts, Lord has averaged only 3.8 innings pitched and 64.3 pitches per appearance. His 4.67 ERA checks out with a 4.89 SIERA and 4.38 xFIP.

Even pitch usage is a worry as Lord's fastball has a 59.2% usage rate. Philly has the fourth-most runs above average against heaters, and it ranks in the top half against sinkers -- one of Lord's three most-used pitches.

The brief stints from Lord cause even more worry for Washington as its bullpen has baseball's highest ERA at 7.41 (second-highest is 5.49). It has the fifth-highest SIERA (4.24), too.

Philadelphia has logged at least seven runs in back-to-back games against the Nationals and in three of its last four.

Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays

Over 8.5 Runs (-120)
Blue Jays Moneyline (-108)

Neither team in the Boston Red Sox-Toronto Blue Jays matchup has excelled at slowing run production thus far -- both teams are in the bottom 10 of runs allowed per game. Neither starter on the mound tonight makes me think it'll be different. Tanner Houck has a dreadful 7.58 ERA paired with a 4.33 SIERA and 4.22 xFIP through six starts, and Jose Berrios touts a 4.24 ERA, 4.55 SIERA, and 4.35 xFIP in a six-start span.

Starting with the Blue Jays' path to run production, they look to make contact and get on base. They carry the fourth-lowest SLG, third-lowest K%, and rank in the top half of singles for the season. Houck has a 1.685 WHIP while opponents are batting .319 paired with a .388 OBP. He's also in the 11th percentile of hard-hit percentage allowed, giving Toronto an angle for an increase in extra-base hits. The Jays already sport the ninth-most doubles per contest.

Our biggest driving force to the over could be this Boston batting order. It is eighth in batting average and sixth in OBP, SLG, and runs per game. Berrios has given up six home runs through six starts, giving him 1.59 HR/9 -- which would be his worst mark since 1.85 in his 2016 rookie season. Additionally, he's in the 36th percentile of walk rate allowed, and the Red Sox boast the 6th-highest BB%.

We certainly have a path to the over, but which team will grab the win with each side listed at -108? Of the two, I like the home Blue Jays.

I have more confidence in a quality start from Berrios, who is carrying a 4.52 xERA, compared to a 5.05 mark for Houck.

With the over in mind, we could see plenty of both bullpens. While each bullpen is in the bottom half of ERA, Toronto has the lowest SIERA while the Red Sox have the 12th-lowest mark.

In Wednesday's meeting, the Red Sox scored six runs in six innings but didn't score from the 7th to the 10th. Meanwhile, the Jays pulled off a come-from-behind 7-6 win by scoring four runs from the 7th to the 10th. This is the blueprint for tonight's contest; Toronto's bullpen simply outperforming Boston's unit.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.