3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Monday 7/21/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Guardians

Guardians Over 4.5 Runs (+112)

The Cleveland Guardians have posted 5.9 runs per game over the last 10 compared to their season-long average of 3.8. Of course, a spike in runs has lead to plenty of wins, boasting an 8-2 record over the last 10. The over has been a consistent trend, too, going 7-3 over the Guardians' previous 10. Will the Baltimore Orioles slow down this batting order on Monday?

Putting Tomoyuki Sugano on the mound is far from ideal against a red-hot lineup, for he carries a 4.44 ERA, 4.75 SIERA, and 4.62 xFIP. His numbers continue to rise with a 7.94 ERA over his previous six starts and a 9.19 ERA over the last three.

Cleveland has upped its home run production over the last 10 games with 1.70 big flies per game compared to only 1.04 per contest on the season (19th). Sugano gives up a dreadful 1.72 homers per nine innings pitched while ranking in the 11th percentile of barrel rate.

Despite plenty of struggles of recent, Sugano has still pitched into the fifth inning in five of his past six starts. This should give the Guards plenty of time to tee off, and the Orioles' bullpen probably won't provide much relief with the sixth-highest ERA.

Boston Red Sox at Philadelphia Phillies

Phillies -1.5 First 5 Innings Run Line (+100)

The Philadelphia Phillies are 13-6 when Zack Wheeler is on the mound while the Boston Red Sox are 9-7 with Walker Buehler pitching. As the team records suggest, Wheeler touts the much better numbers with a 2.36 ERA, 2.65 SIERA, and 2.62 xFIP compared to Buehler's 6.12 ERA, 4.75 SIERA, and 4.72 xFIP.

Philadelphia is in the top half of runs above average against three of Buehler's four most-used pitches (four-seam fastball, cutter, sinker, and slider). Plus, the Phillies have the sixth-most runs above average against four seamers -- which is Buehler's most-used pitch (24.5%).

Additionally, Philly is in the top half of SLG and isolated power while Buehler ranks in the 30th percentile of barrel rate allowed. He even touts an alarming 1.96 home runs allowed per nine innings pitched, and the Phillies just averaged 2.0 home runs per game in their most recent series.

Wheeler leans on his four-seam fastball (41.9%) and sinker (17.7%), and the Sox are around the middle of the league against each pitch with the 12th-most runs above average. That's not an awful matchup considering Boston posts the fifth-most runs per game (4.93).

Plus, the Red Sox have the fifth-highest SLG and sixth-highest isolated power. Wheeler has the answer by ranking in the 68th percentile of barrel rate allowed and 90th percentile of hard-hit percentage ceded.

Wheeler touts the shortest odds to win the National League Cy Young (-130) while Buehler continues to put up underwhelming numbers. Backed by a stark difference in starting pitchers, Philly should roll early. My attention is firmly on the first five innings, though. The Red Sox's bullpen have the fifth-lowest ERA compared to the Phillies carrying the eighth-highest mark.

St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies

Under 11.5 Total Runs (-110)

Tonight's meeting between the St. Louis Cardinals and Colorado Rockies features one of the highest totals you will see in MLB action. Despite each team putting a questionable hurler on the bump, the 11.5-run total simply feels too high.

Colorado logs 3.57 runs per game (third-fewest), slightly increasing to 3.8 runs per contest over the last 10. While St. Louis' Michael McGreevy has made only three starts in the majors this season, he still has a decent 3.98 SIERA -- which is slightly below the league average of 3.88. Over three starts a season ago, McGreevy boasted a 2.77 SIERA.

McGreevy's top three pitches are his four seamer (25.7%), sinker (23.7%), and sweeper (19.2%), and the Rockies are in the bottom 10 of runs above average against each pitch. The Cardinals' bullpen is also in the top half for the lowest ERA and SIERA.

St. Louis' run production will probably be the main concern for pushing this total to the over. However, the Cards have a .259 batting average against right-handed hurlers (4th-highest) compared to .233 when facing southpaws (11th-lowest).

Austin Gomber at least has the advantage of being a lefty. St. Louis' run production over the last 10 has actually been a step behind the Rockies during the span, totaling only 3.7 runs per game. With a drop in run production and struggles against lefties, Gomber should do enough to aid the under -- even with his 5.65 ERA.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.