3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Monday 5/5/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins

Dodgers Over 5.5 Runs (+100)

The Los Angeles Dodgers have put up double-digit runs in three of their last five games, and that's the kind of performance we could see tonight against the Miami Marlins and floundering right-hander Sandy Alcantara.

That's because one of those recent outbursts at the plate came in Alcantara's last start. Not only did Los Angeles rack up 7 runs against Alcantara in just 2 2/3 innings, but they would ultimately finish with a whopping 15 runs.

The Miami right-hander isn't showing many positives through six starts, owning a 6.37 xERA, 15.8% strikeout rate, and 14.2% walk rate. Against righties, the Dodgers' active roster boasts the league's fifth-best wRC+ (124), fourth-best ISO (.193), and fourth-best walk rate (11.0%).

Even if Alcantara defies expectations, the Marlins' bullpen ranks last in xFIP among active rosters (4.87) alongside poor marks in K rate (19.4%) and BB rate (12.5%).

The Dodgers have averaged 5.35 runs per game this year, and in such a plus matchup, scoring six or more runs is a reasonable expectation.

Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals

Cardinals Over 4.5 Runs (+110)

The St. Louis Cardinals will face struggling Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Carmen Mlodzinski on Monday, and that could lead to a productive night at the plate.

Mlodzinski comes in with an underwhelming 5.07 xERA, 18.0% strikeout rate, and 8.2% walk rate through six starts. While he has a solid 48.9% ground-ball rate and has suffered from an unlucky .398 BABIP, the modest K rate invites trouble, and his hard-hit rate allowed (40.0%) hasn't been anything special.

The Cardinals' active roster has been above average versus righties this season with a 105 wRC+. This includes having the league's fifth-lowest strikeout rate (18.4%) in the split, as well.

The Pirates' bullpen could further aid St. Louis, as it has MLB's second-worst K rate (18.9%) and seventh-worst xFIP (4.20) among active rosters. In all, this looks like a promising night for the Cardinals to score 5+ runs.

Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals

Royals -1.5 (-111)

The Chicago White Sox have actually won three of their last four games, but that still puts them at just 10 wins this season, which is the league's second-worst mark ahead of only the abysmal Colorado Rockies.

Meanwhile, even though the Kansas City Royals haven't exactly been world-beaters this season, they've turned around a slow start and have won 11 of their last 13 games. Armed with their top pitcher on the mound, they should be able to take care of business against the lowly White Sox.

Left-hander Cole Ragans has a pretty meh 4.40 ERA, but the underlying metrics remain fantastic. He comes into the day with a 2.41 SIERA, 2.45 xERA, 35.9% strikeout rate, and 7.0% walk rate. Chicago's active roster has the worst wRC+ (74) versus southpaws since the start of the last season, so they should be easy pickings for Ragans.

Righty Shane Smith will get the ball for the White Sox, and he's a clear regression candidate. In spite of a 2.23 ERA over his six outings, he's more of a middle-or-the-road arm with a 4.32 SIERA, 3.96 xERA, 19.5% strikeout rate, and 9.0% walk rate.

With Kansas City playing well and having a clear pitching advantage tonight, a routine win looks like the most likely outcome.

Get a 30% Profit Boost to use on a 3+ leg parlay or SGP wager on ANY sports game or event taking place on May 5th, 2025! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which MLB bets stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest MLB betting odds to see the full menu of options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.