3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Monday 5/19/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates

Reds Moneyline (-118)

Entering Monday's NL Central bout between the Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates, both teams are trending in opposite directions recently. The Reds are amid a four-game winning streak and are showing signs of improvement while the Pirates have lost three games in a row and have the third-worst winning percentage (31.9%) in the league.

Cincinnati will also have Nick Lodolo making his 10th start of the campaign, as the left-handed hurler is posting a formidable 3.92 SIERA and 1.08 WHIP. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh will be trotting out Mitch Keller, who is sporting a 4.25 SIERA, 1.33 WHIP, and a forgettable 1-5 record across his first 9 outings.

Against right-handed pitching, the Reds are registering the 11th-best wOBA (.325), 12th-best ISO (.160), and 5th-best BABIP (.307). Along with the Pirates having the sixth-worst wOBA (.273), fifth-worst wRC+ (68), and sixth-worst ISO (.105) versus southpaws, they are logging the third-highest strikeout rate (27.1%) in that split this season.

New York Mets at Boston Red Sox

First 5 Innings Result: Mets (-104)

The New York Mets are going to have a massive pitching advantage on Monday against the Boston Red Sox with Kodai Senga on the bump, so taking them to secure a lead in the first five innings seems ideal. Throughout his first 8 starts and 44.1 innings pitched in 2025, Senga is in the 69th percentile in xERA (3.33), 73rd percentile in xBA (.228), and 71st percentile in barrel rate (6.1%).

While Senga can sometimes struggle with walks (24th percentile in walk rate), Hunter Dobbins is expected to make his sixth start for the Red Sox on Monday. Dobbins has coughed up four-plus earned runs in two of his last three starts, and the rookie right-hander is also in the 34th percentile in strikeout rate (19.3%) and 47th percentile in hard-hit rate (41.1%).

Besides Boston losing five of their last six games, New York is producing the seventh-best wOBA (.327), ninth-best wRC+ (110), eighth-best ISO (.171), and seventh-lowest strikeout rate (20.2%) when facing right-handed pitching. Despite the Red Sox boasting the 7th-best ISO (.174) versus right-handed pitchers, Senga excels at limiting hard contact, and they have the 6th-highest strikeout rate (23.2%) in that split.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers

Over 9.5 Runs (-114)

The Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Dodgers are two of the best teams at the plate to begin the season, and there should be plenty of fireworks on Monday with two shaky starters taking the mound. While Brandon Pfaadt has a modest 3.73 ERA and received a new contract from the Diamondbacks before the season began, he is sitting in the 11th percentile in xERA (5.63), 6th percentile in xBA (.304), and 15th percentile in hard-hit rate (47.1%) through his first 9 starts and 50.2 innings pitched.

To the surprise of no one, the Dodgers are posting the second-best wOBA (.357), best wRC+ (129), and third-best ISO (.197) against right-handed pitching. As for Los Angeles, they're expected to have Landon Knack making his fifth start of the year, and the second-year starter is residing in the 18th percentile in xERA (4.98), 16th percentile in xBA (.281), and 3rd percentile in hard-hit rate (53.7%).

Similar to Pfaadt's metrics being a concern versus the Dodgers, Knack's dismal numbers are a major issue versus a Diamondbacks squad that has the best wOBA (.359), third-best wRC+ (127), and best ISO (.222) versus righties. With temperatures in the 70s and winds blowing out to center field at Dodger Stadium on Monday, there should be no shortage of runs scored between Arizona and Los Angeles in this matchup.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.