3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Monday 5/12/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Milwaukee Brewers at Cleveland Guardians

First 5 Innings Run Line: Brewers -0.5 (-113)

A pitching mismatch between Freddy Peralta and Ben Lively should help the Milwaukee Brewers emerge with a lead through five innings against the Cleveland Guardians tonight.

Peralta has been fantastic over eight starts for Milwaukee, flashing a 2.97 xERA and 26.5% strikeout rate. He's gone at least five innings in every outing and allowed more than two earned runs only once. While he'll have to contend with a slew of lefties from the Guardians, Cleveland has been closer to league average versus righties, owning a 106 wRC+ that's 16th among active rosters.

The Guardians' Lively has a 3.46 ERA across his eight starts but looks like a regression candidate due to a 4.55 xERA and 4.87 SIERA. He's allowed 1.30 HR/9, and home runs could continue to creep up considering a 16.9% K rate, 30.4% ground-ball rate, and 10.4% barrel rate.

The Brewers' offense is in the same neighborhood at the Guardians against righties (104 wRC+), but this plus matchup should help them score runs in the opening frames. Between that and what should be another strong performance from Peralta, Milwaukee ought to be out front after five innings.

Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers

Over 8.5 Runs (-105)

A pair of struggling pitchers will take the mound in this Boston Red Sox-Detroit Tigers matchup, giving us a clear path toward the over.

Boston's Tanner Houck has been roughed up for a 6.10 ERA, and his 5.05 xERA (19th percentile), 48.1% hard-hit rate (10th percentile), and 91.5 mph average exit velocity (11th percentile) don't inspire confidence. While the righty's numbers are a bit skewed by an especially rough outing versus the Tampa Bay Rays on April 14th (11 earned runs allowed in 2 2/3 innings), his strikeout rate (17.5%) and ground-ball rate (48.9%) have taken sizable dips compared to 2024.

Meanwhile, Tigers starter Jackson Jobe comes in with a 5.23 SIERA, 16.4% strikeout rate, and 12.3% walk rate. Jobe most recently got wrecked by the Colorado Rockies for 6 earned runs in 3/23 innings, and although that came at Coors Field, giving him somewhat of a pass, the historically bad Rockies have a league-low 77 wRC+ at home.

Both the Red Sox and Tigers have been above-average offenses so far, as well, with both clubs sitting inside the top seven in runs per game. Combining for nine or more runs looks quite doable on Monday night.

Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs

Cubs -1.5 (-118)

The Chicago Cubs have lost four of their last five, but a series against the Miami Marlins could help them get on track.

The Marlins will roll out right-hander Cal Quantrill at Wrigley Field, and his 2025 campaign has shown little promise. Through his seven starts, Quantrill has logged a 5.82 xERA, 15.7% strikeout rate, and 7.9% walk rate, and his 1.42 HR/9 is practically identical to last season's mark.

The Cubs have been racking up the runs this year (5.68 per game), and against right-handed pitching, their active roster ranks eighth in wRC+ (116) and fifth in ISO (.185).

Quantrill could be in for a quick hook tonight, and a short-lived start will simply mean more innings for a suspect Miami bullpen to fill. The Marlins' active relievers own MLB's second-worst xFIP (4.70), fifth-worst K rate (20.1%), and second-worst walk rate (11.9%).

Right-hander Colin Rea will get the nod for Chicago, and while his underlying metrics don't pop, he's recorded a solid 3.86 xERA, 20.3% strikeout rate, and 5.7% walk rate across 29 2/3 innings. Even if he isn't perfect, Miami's active roster is just 24th in wRC+ (97) and 20th in ISO (.148) versus righties, limiting the chances of a Marlins outburst at the plate.

Particularly with the likelihood of the Cubs putting up some crooked numbers tonight, they should be able to cover the run line.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.