3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Monday 4/7/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Baltimore Orioles at Arizona Diamondbacks

Diamondbacks Moneyline (-122)

Both of these teams have capable offenses, so this one boils down to the pitching matchup between Zach Eflin and Zac Gallen, which should give the Arizona Diamondbacks a leg up over the Baltimore Orioles.

Arizona's Gallen had a disappointing Opening Day start, but in his last outing, he mowed down the New York Yankees across 6 2/3 scoreless innings with 13 punchouts. He comes in at a 2.75 xFIP, 37.8% K rate, and 14.7% swinging-strike rate through 10 2/3 innings.

Although he's not going to keep the strikeouts rolling in at that clip, it's all a promising sign that he'll at the very least be the same guy who produced a 3.62 xFIP and 25.1% strikeout rate in 2024.

Meanwhile, Eflin's at a 4.47 xFIP and 15.6% K rate through his two starts, and it wasn't like he was a high-strikeout guy last year (19.6%), either. His success has generally come from suppressing walks and hard contact, and although he's issued just one walk through 12 innings, his hard-hit rate has been in the 10th percentile.

Both pitchers ought to have successful campaigns, but the edge has to go to Gallen so far. It also helps that Arizona's active bullpen leads the league in xFIP (2.59), whereas Baltimore's group is 19th (4.26).

Cincinnati Reds at San Franciso Giants

Reds Moneyline (+128)

This figures to be a pitchers' duel between Hunter Greene and Logan Webb, but the early returns from Greene are enough to consider siding with the Cincinnati Reds at plus money.

Over his first dozen innings this season, Green has put up a 3.22 xFIP, 36.4% strikeout rate, 19.7% swinging-strike rate, and 4.5% walk rate. On top of all that, he hasn't been allowing a ton of hard contact, ranking in the 78th percentile for hard-hit rate, so it's possible his generally strong quality of contact metrics from 2024 will carry over after he struggled with home runs his first couple of campaigns.

Even if more dingers do make a return for Greene in 2025 as a fly-ball pitcher (48.5% rate last year), that's less of a concern tonight. Not only do we have cooler temperatures expected (mid 50s), but simply escaping Great American Ball Park for pitcher-friendly Oracle Park -- one of the most difficult places to hit a home run -- will give him a huge assist.

While the San Francisco Giants' active roster is above average versus righties since the start of 2024 (107 wRC+), they aren't one of the league's elite offenses, and their higher K rate (23.7%) should also help Greene.

Webb could certainly put the clamps on the Reds' lineup with his excellent ground-ball rate (56.8% in 2024), though he's a pitcher that's average-to-below-average in strikeout rate (20.5% in 2024), which leaves him open to poor BABIP luck getting him into trouble. He's started to allow more loud contact in recent campaigns, too, as his xERA was a less dominant 4.31 last season.

Cincinnati is a below-average offense, but they're stronger against right-handers, and that's particularly the case for switch-hitter Elly De La Cruz, who owns a career 125 wRC+ and .239 ISO in the split. If Greene is dealing again, we just need a respectable night from the Reds' bats to come through with a win.

San Diego Padres at Athletics

Padres Over 4.5 Runs (-102)

Athletics right-hander Luis Severino had had one good and one bad start thus far, but his control has been lacking in both with a worrisome 13.2% walk rate. Add in a 22.6% strikeout rate and 9.2% swinging-strike rate -- basically where he was last season -- and Severino could be on shaky ground if these trends persist. His 4.74 xFIP is nearly a full run higher than his ERA (3.75), as well.

The San Diego Padres' active roster boasts the fifth-best wRC+ (116) against righties going back to last season, and they also have the second-lowest K rate (16.9%) in that split. Admittedly, the Padres are at the bottom in walk rate (6.4%), which could help Severino out a bit, but he should still have a difficult team getting easy outs.

On a slate with cold and dreary weather across several matchups, this is one of the few spots where the forecast shouldn't be a major negative for hitting, too, as temperatures should be in the high 60s at first pitch.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.