3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Monday 4/21/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

San Deigo Padres at Detroit Tigers

Tigers Over 4.5 Runs (+110)

The Detroit Tigers are facing a right-hander due for regression, which should lead to a productive night at the plate.

San Diego Padres right-hander Randy Vasquez may have a sparkling 1.74 ERA through four starts, but it's hard to find much of anything to back it up. Behind that ERA lies a 5.71 xERA and 6.83 SIERA, and Vasquez has issued more walks (16.3% rate) than strikeouts (9.3% rate). It's not like the righty was particularly successful in 2024, either, posting an ugly 5.94 xERA across 20 starts.

The Tigers' active roster has performed well versus righties this season, too, putting up a 111 wRC+. They've also logged a 9.6% walk rate in the split, which could especially come in handy against a pitcher exhibiting control issues.

With an exploitable pitching matchup on tap, Detroit will have a great chance of scoring at least five runs, and these plus-money odds should further entice us to take the plunge.

St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves

Braves Over 4.5 Runs (-115)

The Atlanta Braves are another team that ought to put up some crooked numbers tonight.

Atlanta will see St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Erick Fedde on the mound. Over four starts, despite solid results, the 32-year-old has put up a lackluster 5.94 SIERA, 12.0% strikeout rate, and 13.3% walk rate. An unsustainable .183 BABIP is due for a course correction, and that could come as soon as tonight.

The Braves' active roster has been solid versus righties this season, producing a 109 wRC+ and .176 ISO. Although Atlanta owns one of the league's higher K rates in the split (25.5%), that shouldn't be a problem against a low-strikeout pitcher like Fedde.

We also have above-average hitting conditions at Truist Park as the forecast is showing temperatures in the 80s at first pitch. The Cardinals' bullpen has the league's second-worst strikeout rate (19.4%) among active rosters, as well.

With all of this in mind, this looks like the right spot to back the Braves to score over 4.5 runs.

Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros

Blue Jays ML (+116)

We should have a good pitching matchup between Kevin Gausman and Hunter Brown, but there could be value in backing the Toronto Blue Jays as slight underdogs against the Houston Astros.

Both pitchers have enjoyed positive results over four starts, and while Brown has the more impressive overall numbers, there isn't a huge difference in xERA between him (3.02) and Gausman (3.36).

Further, the Astros have been the lesser team offensively. Toronto's active roster owns a 96 wRC+ versus righties, whereas Houston has an 87 wRC+ in the split.

While these teams both have strong bullpens, the Blue Jays could have an advantage here, too. Their active bullpen owns the league's second-best xFIP (2.91) and best strikeout rate (32.0%).

There's a case that Toronto actually has the edge tonight, making them intriguing to side with at +116 odds.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.