3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Friday 8/1/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Detroit Tigers at Philadelphia Phillies

Tigers Over 3.5 Runs (-106)

Despite posting the fifth-most runs scored this season, the Detroit Tigers hold only a 3.5-run total against the Philadelphia Phillies. The Tigers have posted 8.5 runs per game over their previous four contests, drawing our attention to the over.

However, the Phillies are putting a strong stater on the mound in Ranger Suarez. He boasts a 2.59 ERA, 3.16 xERA, 3.72 SIERA, and 3.57 xFIP. With the league average SIERA sitting at 3.89, this suggests regression could be on the way. That's been exactly the case over Suarez's last four starts, sporting a 4.57 ERA while posting xFIPs of 3.98 or higher in three of four outings.

Detroit is one of the best batting orders in baseball against left-handed hurlers, touting the second-most runs scored and highest batting average in the split. Its mark of .265 against southpaws is a noticeable jump compared to a .244 batting average when facing righties (ninth-lowest). The last time the Tigers faced a left-handed starter, they rolled to a 5-1 win on July 28.

Suarez's pitch usage isn't doing any favors, either. He features a wide variety of tools with five pitches carrying usage rates above 13.0%, including a sinker (29.0%), changeup (22.3%), cutter (19.6%), curveball (14.4%), and four-seam fastball (13.9%). Detroit is in the top 10 of runs above average against four of the five pitches as the only exception is touting the 11th-lowest mark when seeing curveballs.

We should expect a strong showing from the Tigers against Suarez, and the Phillies' bullpen has the seventh-highest ERA. Detroit's 3.5 run total is my favorite bet for Friday.

Milwaukee Brewers at Washington Nationals

Over 8.5 Total Runs (-115)

Two lefties will be on the mound for the Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals matchup, but that may not halt tonight's run production.

Both teams perform quite well against southpaws, for the Nationals are 15th in batting average and 19th in runs scored compared to 21st and 19th when facing righties. Furthermore, the Brewers have the 4th-most runs scored and 5th-highest batting average in the split compared to 15th and 16th against northpaws.

Neither starter will blow your socks off, either

Starting with Milwaukee's Jose Quintana, his 3.50 ERA is solid but advanced numbers lack, including a 4.78 xERA, 4.98 SIERA, and 4.76 xFIP. Quintana's ERA is beginning to rise at 4.03 over his last four starts, and he's posted xFIPs surpassing 5.00 in two of the past three. The Brew Crew's starter heavily leans on his sinker with a 45.9% usage rate, and the Nats have the 10th-most runs above average against the pitch.

We don't have to do much digging for Washington's Mitchell Parker; his 4.91 ERA, 5.45 xERA, 5.10 SIERA, and 5.04 xFIP all set off the alarms. The concerning advanced numbers have kept up with Parker posting xFIPs of 4.75 or higher in three of the past four appearances. Milwaukee is also in the top half of runs above average against three of his four most-used pitches. The Nationals' bullpen probably won't do many favors, either, carrying the highest ERA in baseball.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Tampa Bay Rays

Over 9 Totals Runs (-106)

Despite tonight's lofty total of nine for the Los Angeles Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays, the over is still grabbing my attention. It's only right to put a bow on today's picks with yet another over line. Here's why over nine runs for Dodgers-Rays should be on our radar.

Any game involving Clayton Kershaw usually meant unders, but that was in the past. We know his numbers have been on the decline, including a 3.62 ERA, 4.61 SIERA, and 4.37 xFIP this season. His 4.71 ERA over the last four games looks even worse -- especially with xFIPs going over 5.20 in the last two outings. Kershaw continues to lean on a slider (40.3%) and four-seamer (36.0%), and Tampa Bay is in the top eight of runs above average against both pitches.

The Rays have made the most out of their chances, leaving the third-fewest runners in scoring position on base per game. After opponents batted .320 with runners in scoring position a year ago, Kershaw's numbers still aren't great with opponents at .273 this season. Tampa Bay already has MLB's sixth-highest batting average, too. Look for the Rays' contact to generate more runs.

Building an argument for Los Angeles to drive in runs usually doesn't take much effort. That's especially true when Shane Baz has a 4.61 ERA, 3.98 SIERA, and 3.94 xFIP while posting a 5.40 ERA over his previous five starts. His four-seam fastball has a 44.7% usage rate, and the Dodgers log the most runs above average against the tool.

As usual, Los Angeles' power hitting cause many sleepless nights for opposing pitches. Baz gives up 1.44 home runs per nine innings pitched while ranking in the 35th and 58th percentiles of barrel and hard-hit rates allowed. Sitting in the top four of SLG, isolated power, and home run rate all point to the Dodgers mashing all night long. Baz heavily leaning on a fastball only screams more hard contact.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.