3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Friday 6/13/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Tampa Bay Rays at New York Mets

Rays Under 3.5 Runs (-122)

A pitching duel between Taj Bradley and Clay Holmes could give way to a low-scoring affair at Citi Field, but I'm scared enough of the New York Mets' offense to fade only the Tampa Bay Rays in this spot.

The Rays are averaging a healthy 4.43 runs per game (11th-most in MLB) but have still scored under 3.5 runs in nearly half of their games (48.5%) and have tallied four runs or fewer at a 64.7% rate.

Holmes' first season as a full-time starter has been fruitful. He comes in with a 2.95 ERA, 3.61 xFIP, 3.74 SIERA and holds opponents to 0.98 home runs per nine innings.

Holmes is the top guy in the rotation, but we can thank New York's bullpen for their league-best 45-24 record. The Mets' active relief arms tout a 2.68 ERA (fifth-best), 25.2% strikeout rate (sixth-best), and hold opponents to 0.70 home runs per nine innings. As a result, the combined efforts of Holmes and the pen have held teams to an average of 2.6 runs per game. Opposing teams have scored under 3.5 runs in 9 of 13 starts made by Holmes.

The Rays are a candidate to fall into that trap, as they are a middle-of-the-road offense in ISO (.149; 18th) and wOBA (.318; 15th) against righties. Look for TB to be kept in line tonight.

Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Phillies

Blue Jays Under 3.5 Runs (+104)

Few offenses get a bigger downgrade on the road than the Toronto Blue Jays. They generate 5.14 runs per game at home but just 3.52 runs per game away from Rogers Centre.

For the season, they've scored under 3.5 runs in 54.5% of road games -- up from the 49.0% implied probability on these +104 odds. The caveat? Toronto draws a matchup against a lefty, and this offense has been elite versus southpaws. But said lefty -- Ranger Suarez -- has been equally as dominant, so I do think we can go there.

Suarez has delivered just seven starts this season (43 1/3 IP), but he's managed a 2.70 ERA in that time. His 2.55 xERA suggests stability, and he's further backed by an awfully limiting 0.42 home runs per nine innings allowed. He and Philly's bullpen have held opponents to two runs or fewer in four of the last six outings.

Toronto's active roster is top of the league against lefties in most offensive metrics, but it's been a different story on the road. Here, they check in with a .106 ISO (24th), .307 wOBA (10th), and 97 wRC+ (10th) -- down from an amazing .373 wOBA and 147 wRC+ versus lefties at home.

San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers

First Five Innings Under 3.5 Runs (+100)

Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Logan Webb will toe the rubber in a San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers clash this evening.

Yamamoto (+700) and Webb (+1600) rank second and fourth, respectively, in FanDuel's NL Cy Young odds. You won't find a more elite pitching matchup than this one, so let's keep it simple and target the under through the first five.

Yamamoto comes in with a 2.20 ERA, 2.78 xERA, 2.80 xFIP, and a sizzling 29.6% strikeout rate. Silencing San Fran's bats figures to be light work, as they produce poor marks against righties on the road, including a .304 wOBA (23rd) and 92 wRC+ (23rd). Yamamoto has pitched five-plus scoreless innings six times this season. He's surrendered one run or fewer through the first five frames in 9 of 13 starts. He's primed to make us proud tonight.

Webb draws the more daunting task facing a behemoth Dodgers lineup, but the 2024 All-Star is having himself a career year.

We've always known Webb to be steady, but he's been a different beast in 2025. He enters with a 2.58 ERA, 2.53 SIERA, and an MLB-best 2.19 xFIP. He limits opponents to 0.52 home runs per nine innings and has finally added elite strikeout marks to his game, flashing a blistering 28.5% strikeout rate.

Plus, the Dodgers are an offense that gets better with age. They show a 116 wRC+ and .335 wOBA through the first five frames compared to a 135 wRC+ and .362 wOBA in the latter half of contests.

At +100 odds, we can feel satisfied buying into a hurlers duel such as this one.

New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $200 in Bonus Bets if your first $5+ bet wins! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which bets stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds to see the full menu of options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.