3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Friday 5/23/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds

Under 8.5 Runs (-110)

Taking unders at Great American Ball Park isn't for the faint of heart, but that's where I land today.

Hunter Greene is a big reason why I like the under, and if this bet is going to win, we likely need him to quiet the top-notch offense of the Chicago Cubs. I think he can do just that.

The Cincinnati Reds' flamethrower has taken a leap into elite status so far in 2025, pitching to a 2.45 SIERA, 34.7% strikeout rate and 17.5% swinging-strike rate. He's been out of this world. Greene has conquered his home digs, too, holding hitters to a lowly .180 wOBA at Great American Ball Park across a small sample.

On the other side, the Cubs are giving the ball to Matt Boyd. The left-handed Boyd is a far cry from Greene, but the Reds' offense is much worse than Chicago's. That's particularly true against LHP as Cincy ranks just 22nd in wOBA (.281) in the split with the 9th-highest K rate (24.6%).

Plus, Boyd has been good this season, sporting a 3.54 SIERA and 24.8% strikeout rate.

Both starting pitchers give me enough confidence to back the under.

Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays

Rays Over 4.5 Runs (-115)

The Tampa Bay Rays are at their hitter-friendly temporary home today against lefty Eric Lauer, and they can have a big night.

Lauer bottomed out in 2023, recording a 5.31 SIERA and 3.09 home runs per nine innings in 46 2/3 frames. That led to a KBO stint in 2024, and he's split time this year between the bigs and minors. I'm not sure he's fixed his homer issue as he's given up a 61.5% fly-ball rate through his first 12 MLB innings this campaign, and that doesn't bode well for him at George M. Steinbrenner Field, which has been the sixth-best stadium for long-balls this season, per Park Factors.

Tampa Bay has the seventh-most home dingers this year, and they should be able to have success versus Lauer. Once Lauer departs, the Rays can tack on more runs against a Toronto Blue Jays bullpen that has surrendered the 10th-most homers per nine.

Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets

Mets Moneyline (-102)

We've got a pitching matchup of Clayton Kershaw versus Griffin Canning, and I'm intrigued by the New York Mets in this near pick'em.

Kershaw's tank might be about empty. The all-time great is in his age-37 season, and his fastball velocity was just 89.2 MPH in his 2025 debut last time out against the Los Angeles Angels. That outing did not go well as he was tagged for five earned runs while issuing more walks (three) than strikeouts (two). The Mets' offense is a big step up from the Halos' lineup. Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso can feast.

Canning, on the other hand, is off to a dazzling start. Through 47 1/3 innings, he's produced a 3.65 SIERA, which would be a career-best clip. He's getting whiffs (12.3% swinging-strike rate) and Ks (23.2% strikeout rate) while keeping the ball on the ground (55.2% ground-ball rate). In short, he's been really good, and everything checks out. This is obviously a difficult matchup against the Dodgers, but Canning should be up to the task.

The Mets' edge in terms of starting pitching is what I find most appealing, and New York can hang in the other important areas -- offensively and bullpen -- as both sides are in the top five in bullpen xFIP. Give me the Mets to knock off the mighty Dodgers.

New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $200 in Bonus Bets if your first $5+ bet wins! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which bets stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds to see the full menu of options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.