3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Friday 4/25/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees

Over 9.5 Runs (+102)

We'll be fading the starting pitchers in Friday's AL East clash between the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees by taking the over. The Blue Jays are expected to have Jose Berrios on the bump for the sixth time this season while Carlos Carrasco is expected to make his fifth start of the campaign for the Yankees.

Across his first five starts and 30.2 innings pitched, Berrios is in the 43rd percentile in xERA (4.08), 32nd percentile in xBA (.264), 35th percentile in barrel rate (9.9%), and 32nd percentile in hard-hit rate (44.4%) while coughing up three-plus earned runs in three of his outings. Along with Carrasco surrendering three-plus earned runs in three of his four starts, he's residing in the 20th percentile in xERA (5.14), 17th percentile in xBA (.288), 14th percentile in barrel rate (13.2%), and 38th percentile in hard-hit rate (42.6%).

New York is currently producing the second-best wOBA (.353), best wRC+ (134), and best ISO (.204) in all of baseball right now, and we know the damage they can do at Yankee Stadium. Although Toronto has gotten off to a slow start at the plate, Carrasco's inability to miss bats (16.7% strikeout rate and 82.6% contact rate) should lead to plenty of balls in play for the Blue Jays.

Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks

Diamondbacks Moneyline (+110)

Starting pitchers tend to be a large reason why certain teams are favored in a specific matchup, which is why the Atlanta Braves are likely expected to beat the Arizona Diamondbacks on Friday. Chris Sale is expected to get the nod for the Braves, but he has been far from reliable this season after winning the NL Cy Young in 2024.

Over the course of his first 5 starts and 23.1 innings pitched in 2025, Sale is in the 45th percentile in xERA (3.97), 44th percentile in xBA (.250), and 31st percentile in barrel rate (10.3%). Additionally, Sale has yet to pitch more than five innings in an outing this season, has given up three-plus earned runs in four of his five starts, and he's walked three batters in each of his last two appearances.

Even though Zac Gallen hasn't been great on the mound, either, backing the Diamondbacks to win is more about their bats, as they are sporting the third-best wOBA (.341), fifth-best wRC+ (114), fourth-best ISO (.192), second-lowest strikeout rate (18.9%), and third-highest walk rate (11.2%). Lastly, Atlanta is currently posting a dismal 2-11 record on the road while Arizona is 7-6 at home to begin the new campaign, so I'll back the better team in Friday's contest.

Chicago White Sox at Athletics

Athletics -1.5 (-115)

At first glance, the Athletics have a major advantage over the Chicago White Sox on the mound and at the plate in Friday's bout. Sean Burke is currently the projected starting pitcher for the White Sox, and he's residing in the 1st percentile in xERA (8.85), 5th percentile in xBA (.318), 12th percentile in strikeout rate (14.7%), and 5th percentile in barrel rate (17.3%) through 5 starts and 21.2 innings pitched.

On the other hand, the Athletics will have Luis Severino making his sixth start of the 2025 campaign, and he's looked better in recent outings following a rough patch to begin the year, permitting only 2 earned runs across his last 2 starts and 13.2 innings pitched. Severino has a good chance to continue his recent stretch of success against a White Sox club that is producing the worst wOBA (.267), second-worst wRC+ (72), third-worst ISO (.107), and eighth-highest strikeout rate (23.9%) in the league so far.

As for the Athletics, they are registering the fourth-best wOBA (.328), fourth-best wRC+ (116), and sixth-best ISO (.179) in all of baseball while Sutter Health Park appears to be much more hitter-friendly than the Coliseum was. Of the 12 wins the Athletics have secured up to this point, 11 of those were decided by two-plus runs, proving they can cover this run line in a favorable matchup.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.