3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Friday 4/11/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Atlanta Braves at Tampa Bay Rays

Rays Over 4.5 Runs (-120)

We're expecting temperatures in the high 70s with 10 mph winds blowing out at Steinbrenner Field, making this one of the better environments for bats, and that's reflected by this game having one of the slate's higher totals (9.0).

But the reason we should be confident in the Tampa Bay Rays' side specifically is their matchup against Atlanta Braves right-hander Bryce Elder.

Elder was rocked for a 5.04 xERA over 10 starts last season, and his 2025 debut didn't alleviate any concerns after he allowed three earned runs (two dingers) over four innings versus the Los Angeles Dodgers.

If we look at Elder's splits from 2024, he especially struggled against lefty sticks, recording a 5.03 xFIP, 15.7% strikeout rate, and 9.1% walk rate. While the Rays' lineup should have a pretty even split of righties and lefties tonight, the trio of Brandon Lowe, Jonathan Aranda, and Kameron Misner are all left-handed batters who are off to hot starts to the season.

Between the ideal hitting weather and plus matchup against Elder, we should be confident in Tampa having a solid night at the plate on Friday.

Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox

Red Sox -1.5 (+102)

It's only April, so there's a lot to be determined in this MLB campaign, but one thing that's been readily apparent since before the season even started is that the Chicago White Sox are once again going to be one the league's worst teams. Chicago is just 2-10 and enters tonight on an eight-game losing streak.

That should music to the ears of a Boston Red Sox squad that's been up and down and just lost three of four at home against the Toronto Blue Jays.

Boston will have southpaw Sean Newcomb taking the mound, and while he's been a mixed bag at best so far, both his 4.30 SIERA and 3.20 xERA suggest he's been better than his 5.19 ERA across two starts. Specifically, a sky-high .538 BABIP is due for some significant regression.

Newcomb is still a below-average starter who's likely to get bumped from the rotation as the Red Sox get healthier, but we don't need him to be elite versus these White Sox. Against left-handers, Chicago's active roster owns a 78 wRC+ and .108 ISO dating back to the start of last season, making them one of MLB's very worst offenses in the split.

In addition to struggling to score runs, the White Sox could also have a hard time preventing them with Davis Martin get the start. Martin just got shelled by the Detroit Tigers, and after two starts, he's sitting on an 8.44 xERA and 8.2% strikeout rate. Another rough outing could be in store for him against a Boston active roster that boasts a 121 wRC+ and .198 ISO versus righties since the beginning of 2024.

In all, even without one of their top arms getting the start, the Red Sox should have the advantage in this one, and backing them to win by two or more runs at plus money is in play.

Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals

Phillies ML (-118)

Aaron Nola has endured a shaky couple of starts for the Philadelphia Phillies, but it's a bit early to panic, as he's still carrying a 3.31 SIERA that falls in line with what we've come to expect from him over the years. One of those starts came against the vaunted Dodgers, too, so some stumbles were to be expected.

The home run ball has been what's crushed Nola to this point (four dingers allowed), and it's been deserved considering he's already coughed up six barrels. While the long ball is an issue that often crops up for him, the right-hander has consistently posted above-average marks in xERA (3.72 in 2024), so we should again expect better days ahead.

Further, Nola will be aided by Busch Stadium on Friday, which is one of the harder parks to hit a home run. The opposing St. Louis Cardinals don't exactly come filled to the brim with power, either, as their active roster owns the fourth-worst ISO (.138) against righties going back to last year.

The Cardinals will deploy right-hander Andre Pallante as their starter, and while he's off to a better campaign than Nola, he's produced a shaky 12.2% walk rate through his opening starts. In 2024, he recorded an elite ground-ball rate (61.8%) but put up underwhelming marks in both strikeout rate (18.5%) and walk rate (9.4%).

While that ground-ball rate could prevent the Phillies' top sluggers from knocking one out, their active roster is first in walk rate (14.2%) and fifth in K rate (19.0%) against righties this year, and that patience could get Pallante in trouble.

Between a potential bounce-back spot for Nola and a Phillies lineup showing promise in the early going, we should feel good about siding with them to get a win.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.