3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Friday 3/28/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Colorado Rockies at Tampa Bay Rays

Rays Over 4.5 Runs (-111)

I noted the Tampa Bay Rays are in a great spot for dingers in today's home run props piece, and with that being the case, they should have a great chance of scoring five or more runs.

For starters, we're looking at temperatures in the 80s at the Rays' 2025 home venue (George M. Steinbrenner Field), which is particularly great hitting weather for this time of year, so the ball should be flying relative to other ballparks. On top of that, Steinbrenner Field should be an above-average park for hitting, further aiding the Rays' bats.

But most of all, they have a stellar matchup versus left-hander Kyle Freeland. Last year, Freeland was rocked for a 5.11 xERA while owning poor marks in strikeout rate (17.3%) and barrel rate (10.6%). He was in the 10th percentile or worse in all three metrics.

Put it all together, and we should expect a strong day at the plate from Tampa Bay, and plating 5+ runs should be well within reach.

Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers

Red Sox ML (-116)

Both of these teams are expected to have above-average offenses in 2025, so this boils down to the Boston Red Sox having the pitching advantage over the Texas Rangers tonight.

The Rangers have Jack Leiter taking the mound, and he didn't have a great time at the MLB level last season, posting a 6.25 xERA, 17.9% strikeout rate, and 9.8% walk rate. He did produce a 33.3% K rate in Triple-A, so there's a chance he puts it all together at some point, but as things stand, he projects for a 4.91 ERA in 2024, per ATC.

On the other hand, the Red Sox are deploying Tanner Houck, who was rock-solid as a starter in 2024. Last season, he posted a 3.58 xFIP behind an elite 55.9% ground-ball rate, and ATC projects him to have a 3.87 ERA in 2025.

With this game essentially being priced as a toss-up, this looks like a great opportunity to back the Sox tonight.

Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays

Orioles ML (+108)

The Baltimore Orioles exploded for six home runs on Opening Day, leading to a 12-2 blowout over the Toronto Blue Jays. While we should expect a closer game on Friday, getting these Orioles at plus odds is intriguing.

According to FanGraphs, the Orioles project for the sixth-most runs per game this season (4.72), so yesterday's outburst wasn't entirely a fluke. On the other hand, Toronto projects as slightly above league average in runs per game (4.59)

This is further supported by Baltimore's active roster owning a top-10 wRC+ (110) in 2024, which accounts for star slugger Gunnar Henderson being out, and that still places them above the Blue Jays' mark (107).

The starting pitchers could mostly be a wash between Charlie Morton and Kevin Gausman. However, even here, Morton was slightly better than Gausman in SIERA (4.06 vs. 4.24) and xERA (4.49 vs. 4.71) last season.

Yes, the margins are somewhat thin, but considering there's a case that Baltimore should be the favorite, we should like the value we're getting at plus odds. Massey Ratings falls in line with this notion, projecting a 54% win probability for the Orioles.

Get a 25% Profit Boost Token to use on a pre-live, straight, “To Hit a Home Run” wager on any MLB game on March 29th. If your player hits a HR that day, get a share of $500K in Bonus Bets! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which MLB bets stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest MLB betting odds to see the full menu of options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.