3 Best Fantasy Football Values in 2024
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We're closing in on peak fantasy football draft season, and that means finalizing our favorite targets on the board.
The word "value" gets thrown around a lot in fantasy sports drafting, and while that often refers to sleepers and late-round picks, value can also be found early on if we think the market isn't properly pricing specific players.
Along those lines, let's take a look at three potential targets who could outperform their average draft position (ADP) at various stages of drafts.
3 Best Fantasy Football Values for 2024
De'Von Achane, Miami Dolphins
De'Von Achane burst onto the scene in Week 3 last season with an absurd 49.3 half-PPR points and would go on to post four more games with 20-plus points despite playing just nine games with meaningful snaps. In that sample, he would average 19.4 half-PPR points and 109.2 scrimmage yards per game, both of which would've ranked second-best among running backs over a full season behind Christian McCaffrey. And yet he did all this while averaging just 11.2 carries and 3.9 targets per game with a 50.9% snap rate.
That tantalizing production has vaulted Achane up into the top 20 of fantasy drafts as the RB10, per FantasyPros, making him a late second-round pick. It's a massive leap for a player who was generally going well outside the top 100 overall in 2023.
But could his draft stock still be too low?
Yes, there are notable concerns regarding workload. Raheem Mostert split work with Achane last season and is expected to do so again. The team also drafted Jaylen Wright who could have a role. Achane isn't particularly big (5-9, 188 lbs), and played just 11 games in 2023 due to multiple injuries, which could further discourage the Miami Dolphins from upping his touches.
It's fair to expect regression from his 7.8 rushing yards per carry, as well, which was a historic mark that he's unlikely to repeat.
Even with all that to consider, Achane could still be poised for a massive fantasy campaign.
While regression should be coming, we also shouldn't discredit Achane's talent as being a big part of that insane efficiency. Among running backs with at least 100 carries, he ranked first in rushing yards over expected per carry (2.9), expected points added per carry (0.26), rushing success rate (54.4%), and yards after contact per carry (4.4), per NFL Next Gen Stats. He also was first in PFF's elusive rating (153.5) by a wide margin.
Achane nearly averaged 20 half-PPR points per game over his nine healthy games, and even if we dropped that closer to 16-plus per game, that would still be a top-five mark at running back in each of the last three years. We shouldn't expect his workload to drop off what he earned last season, and if anything, a 32-year-old Mostert is the more likely candidate to fall off compared to a player entering just his second NFL season, regardless of Achane's size.
We really shouldn't discount Achane's ceiling, and his efficiency in a high-powered offense still gives him an appealing floor in a committee. There's a case that he should be being drafted alongside Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, and Jahmyr Gibbs, yet he's typically going a full round later.
Achane also made an appearance on our staff list of 2024 league-winners.
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Two of my favorite quarterback values in 2024 are Kyler Murray and Jayden Daniels, who were covered in buy-low and sleeper pieces, respectively.
But Joe Burrow arguably deserves some love, as well. Burrow is typically getting picked at QB7 around pick 61, and on some sites, he's going a round or even two rounds later than that.
After Burrow burned drafters in 2023, it's easy to see why his draft stock has fallen. Between a calf injury sapping his production early and then a wrist injury cutting his campaign short, there was little positive to take from last season.
That being said, we should remind ourselves of what a healthy Burrow is capable of. Not so long ago in 2022, the Cincinnati Bengals quarterback finished as the QB4 while averaging 21.7 fantasy points per game, which was similar to what Jalen Hurts (21.9) and Lamar Jackson (21.1) averaged last year as top-four signal-callers.
In that last healthy campaign, Burrow was seventh in expected points added per drop back (0.10), third in completion percentage over expected (2.8%), and eighth in passing success rate (48.4%) among qualified QBs. In 2023, he was being drafted as a top-five quarterback.
Even for part of last season, Burrow looked like his old self roughly a month into it, scoring 24.4, 14.8, 27.6, 22.3, and 21.9 points from Weeks 5-10 before suffering his wrist injury.
We have to acknowledge that there's still some risk as Burrow returns from wrist surgery, but he will be ready to play in Week 1, and recent practice reports are positive.
Burrow doesn't bring the rushing upside of other top fantasy options, but he's finished inside the top five QBs before and is still attached to one of the best wideouts in the business, Ja'Marr Chase. If the Cincy QB is healthy as expected, the best could be yet to come -- and at a discount.
Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars
Among pass-catchers, wideout Cooper Kupp is an intriguing buy-low target, and the same goes for tight end Kyle Pitts.
However, much farther down the draft board, we should also try to snag Brian Thomas Jr., who is showing an ADP of WR50 and 129.0 overall on FantasyPros but could be moving up draft boards after a positive preseason. Thomas was the fourth wide receiver taken in the 2024 NFL Draft, going to the Jacksonville Jaguars with the 23rd pick.
With Calvin Ridley out of the picture on Jacksonville, Thomas has the opportunity to emerge as this team's top wideout, and it sounds like he's quickly building a promising rapport with Trevor Lawrence. Ridley vacates 136 targets and finished as last year's WR17; Thomas clearly doesn't need a campaign anything close to that to be a hit at his ADP.
The Jaguars still have Christian Kirk and brought in Gabriel Davis, so it's not like Thomas won't have competition, but Kirk figures to be the main slot receiver while Davis has always been a boom-or-bust receiver. While Kirk posted a 1,000-yard season in 2022 and could very well lead the team in targets, he's being drafted at WR32 where you're expecting that kind of production. Thomas isn't hurting us nearly as much if he doesn't quite live up to the offseason buzz.
In his final year at LSU, Thomas posted 1,177 yards and a whopping 17 touchdowns while playing alongside Malik Nabers (sixth overall pick in the 2024 draft), and he's an elite athlete while still boasting good size. Between his draft pedigree and situation, he looks like great value at his draft cost.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.