3 Best College Football Bets and Player Props for Vanderbilt at Texas

After trailing by 17 points early in the fourth quarter, the Texas Longhorns pulled off a dramatic 45-38 comeback win in overtime against the Mississippi State Bulldogs a week ago. Keeping their slim playoff hopes alive, the No. 20 Longhorns have a chance to bolster their resume against the No. 9 Vanderbilt Commodores on Saturday.

Vandy has won back-to-back games and carries a 7-1 record. The Commodores (+2000) are behind Texas (+1800) in SEC Championship odds, but Vanderbilt holds +124 odds to make the College Football Playoff while the Longhorns sport a +410 line.

Both teams are viewed as longshots to win the SEC, but this top-25 meeting will have an impact on the playoff picture. How should we bet Saturday's 12:00 p.m. ET kickoff?

All college football betting odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

Vanderbilt at Texas Betting Picks

Vanderbilt Under 21.5 (-118)
Vanderbilt Under 148.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Texas has a pair of key injuries drawing attention ahead of Saturday's battle. Safety Michael Taaffe had surgery for a broken thumb last week and was absent from the win over Mississippi State. Arch Manning suffered a concussion in last week's win, putting his status into question.

While both players have uncertain statuses as of Thursday afternoon, they did practice on Wednesday. That's a positive outlook for the Longhorns to cover this -2.5 spread. However, I'm avoiding this line until we get more certain injury reports.

This turns my attention to perhaps the best unit of this matchup: Texas' defense. The unit ranks 34th in expected points added (EPA) per play allowed compared to 103rd in EPA per play on offense (via Game On Paper). The secondary was shredded in Week 9, permitting 382 passing yards and 8.9 yards per passing attempt.

However, the Commodores lean on the ground game with a 53.5% rush-play rate (58th). Vanderbilt is most efficient on the ground by ranking 4th in EPA per carry compared to 13th in EPA per dropback.

Slowing the passing game is still a concern, but Taaffe returning from injury yields more confidence than Manning, who recently entered concussion protocol. If anyone is going to play, it could be Taaffee. Returning the 2024 All-American would clearly boost the secondary.

Pro Football Focus also gives the Longhorns the 8th-highest pass rush grade while Vandy ranks 118th in pass block grade. I simply do not expect Diego Pavia to have enough time in the pocket.

Even in Week 9's poor showing, Texas still held MSU to 1.5 yards per carry. The Longhorns are equipped to slow the Commodores' run game. If that's the case, paired with a dominant pass rush should mean few points for Vanderbilt.

Eli Stowers Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Our player prop options are limited right now due to the injury of Manning. We can't completely overlook the Longhorns' struggles in the secondary from Week 9. This defense ranks 34th in EPA per dropback allowed compared to 3rd against the run.

Furthermore, Vanderbilt's 6.3 yards per carry (3rd) draws most of the attention, but it's still stacking up 8.1 yards per passing attempt (31st). While pass protection will be a concern on Saturday and could ultimately limit the Commodores' point total, this unit still feels bound to find some kind of success through the air.

Tight end Eli Stowers leads the team with 397 receiving yards. He comes off a 42-yard showing and has reached at least 41 receiving yards in five of eight games.

If Taaffe misses his second consecutive game, this should mean more favorable matchups for Stowers. Plus, a tight end can often be a QB's security blanket. If Pavia is under constant pressure, the 6-foot-4 Stowers should be a nice target on easy throws.

Texas allowed six catches for 60 receiving yards against Mississippi State's tight end Seydou Traore last week, as well. Give me Stowers to go over his receiving yard prop.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.