3 Best College Basketball Bets and Predictions for Wednesday 12/4/24
College basketball is back, giving us plentiful betting options with so many teams in action each day.
Fortunately, we have abundant tools available that can aid our chances of finding good betting value. Bart Torvik and KenPom are excellent sources that give insights into team-level efficiency, and Sports Reference provides a wide range of useful team stats, as well.
Let's check out FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball odds and select some of the best bets of the day by utilizing the mentioned tools.
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
Today's Best College Basketball Picks
No. 10 Alabama Crimson Tide at No. 20 North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina -1.5 (-118)
We have a slew of top-25 teams in action tonight, but this figures to be one of the closest matchups with North Carolina hosting Alabama as slight favorites.
There could be value in backing the Tar Heels, though. While their 4-3 record doesn't exactly leap off the page, a road loss to Kansas (ranked 6th on Bart Torvik) and neutral site loss Auburn (4th) can be forgiven, and their most recent defeat came in overtime against Michigan State (33rd).
UNC is just 62nd in adjusted defensive efficiency, but they make up for it by sitting 6th in adjusted offense. They rarely turn the ball over on offense (3rd in turnover rate) while sitting inside the top 50 in both free throw rate (37th) and three-point percentage (46th).
Spread Betting
Alabama has notable wins over Houston and Illinois, but they lost their lone true road game to Purdue and are coming off a loss to Oregon. While the Crimson Tide rank 3rd in adjusted offense, they're just 342nd in defensive turnover rate and 271st in defensive free throw rate, which are two areas the Tar Heels should be able to exploit.
numberFire's game projections are bullish on North Carolina, predicting them to cover 65.9% of the time.
No. 2 Auburn Tigers at No. 9 Duke Blue Devils
Duke -2.5 (-120)
A top-10 matchup between Auburn and Duke could be the game of the night, and Bart Torvik is high on both squads. While the Tigers rank fourth in Bart Torvik's rankings, the Blue Devils rate as the country's top overall squad. With that in mind, we should consider backing the home team to cover this modest spread.
Spread Betting
Auburn comes into Wednesday undefeated with wins over Houston, Iowa State, and North Carolina, but this will be their first true away game. This will be a tough test against a Blue Devils team that's first in adjusted defensive efficiency and ranks fourth in defensive effective field goal percentage.
While Duke has two losses on its resume, both have come against teams ranked inside the top 10 on Bart Torvik (Kentucky and Kansas) at neutral sites, and neither one was by more than five points.
Bart Torvik projects a five-point victory for the Blue Devils while numberFire forecasts a win by around four points.
Texas Longhorns at NC State Wolfpack
Under 146.5 Points (-105)
This is another matchup with a tight spread, but there might be value in taking the under.
For one thing, neither team shoots very often from beyond the arc. Texas ranks 296th in three-point rate while NC State is 332nd. These aren't teams we typically have to worry about getting hot from long range. NC State ranks just 282nd in three-point percentage, too, further helping our cause.
These teams are also solid defensively with the Longhorns ranking 20th in adjusted defense and the Wolfpack coming in at 55th.
Both squads also play at about an average pace, ranking 177th and 170th, respectively, in adjusted tempo.
Total Points
Bart Torvik, numberFire, and Massey Ratings all project these two teams to combine for right around 142 points.
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Which bets stand out to you across the nation tonight? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest college basketball betting odds to see the full menu of options.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.