3 Best College Basketball Bets and Predictions for Friday 12/13/24
College basketball is back, giving us plentiful betting options with so many teams in action each day.
Fortunately, we have abundant tools available that can aid our chances of finding good betting value. Bart Torvik and KenPom are excellent sources that give insights into team-level efficiency, and Sports Reference provides a wide range of useful team stats, as well.
Let's check out FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball odds and select some of the best bets of the day by utilizing the mentioned tools.
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
Today's Best College Basketball Picks
Georgia Southern Eagles at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Over 145.5 Points (-105)
Louisiana Tech is off to a promising 8-2 start, ranking 109th in Bart Torvik -- a solid mark for a mid-major squad. The Bulldogs are set to play host to Georgia Southern, who rank 211th in Bart Torvik's adjusted rankings.
As the 11.5-point spread in favor of LA Tech suggests, the Bulldogs are perceived to be the much better team. Starting with adjusted rankings, the Eagles are 243rd in adjusted offensive efficiency and 155th in adjusted defense. Meanwhile, Louisiana Tech is 117th in adjusted offense and 114th in adjusted defense.
Georgia Southern's defense could be worse than what the rankings suggest, though. Opponents log 79.6 points per game (bottom 17% for defense) against the Bulldogs while carrying a 50.2% effective field goal percentage (top 45%) and 56.5% two-point percentage (bottom 13%).
Total Points
This team also plays with fire by giving up 28.7 three-point attempts per contest (bottom 5%) and a 48.9% shot distribution from three (bottom 3%). Louisiana Tech is in the top 43% of three-point shot distribution and drains 8.3 threes per game (top 31%). The Eagles have been fortunate to allow only a 29.1% three-point percentage (top 11%), but that luck could run out with the Bulldogs shooting 37.9% from three-point land (top 13%). Georgia Southern's two-point percentage allowed could also be an issue with LA Tech sitting in the top 24% for shot distribution for close twos.
On the other side of the court, the Eagles like to attack the rim by carrying a 44.4% shot distribution for close twos. Similar to the Bulldogs, Georgia Southern should also have an advantage on offense with LA Tech giving up a 41.4% shot distribution on close twos (bottom 28%).
Considering the advantages for each offense, the over is enticing. We aren't asking too much here with the number set at 145.5 points. Bart Torvik's game projections have the two combining for 147 points.
Indiana Hoosiers at Nebraska Cornhuskers
Indiana +3.5 (-102)
Under 154.5 Points (-110)
Indiana went on a terrible stretch to end November, losing to Louisville and Gonzaga by an average margin of 22.0 points. It was a wake-up call as the Hoosiers have ripped off four straight wins since while covering every game.
After taking out Minnesota earlier this week by 15 points as 9.5-point favorites, Indiana gets its toughest challenge since November as it goes on the road against Nebraska.
The Cornhuskers have been up and down over their previous four. While they impressed with an 11-point win over Creighton as 10-point 'dogs on November 22, they just lost to Michigan State by 37 points on December 7 (ouch).
Considering this stretch from the Hoosiers, there's value in backing the road underdog. Bart Torvik is projecting a 77-76 win in favor of Nebraska, which would be a cover for Indiana. Let's break down the matchup.
Spread Betting
IU's defense has turned it up a notch. After giving up 89.0 PPG during that embarrassing two-game losing streak, opponents are logging only 67.0 PPG over the last four. Gonzaga and Louisville combined for a 52.7% field goal percentage (FG%). The Hoosiers have held their past four opponents to a combined 39.6 FG%.
The Cornhuskers are far from an intimidating offense; in fact, this has been their weakness as they are ranked 88th in adjusted offense compared to 32nd in adjusted defense. Nebraska touts a meh 50.4% effective FG% (bottom 49%) and looks to attack the rim with a 53.9% two-point percentage (top 30%) and 41.8% shot distribution for close twos (top 25%).
Indiana has the answer by sitting in the top 23% of close two shot distribution allowed. Center Oumar Ballo has been one of the nation's top rim protectors, boasting a 3.29 Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating (DBPR), via Evan Miya.
Shooting threes is an angle for success against the Hoosiers, who are in the bottom 31% of three-point attempts allowed. But the Huskers shoot a dreadful 29.8% from three (bottom 20%).
While I like Indiana to come up with the cover, this could be a low-scoring battle that's too close for comfort. We know why Nebraska could struggle to score, but what about the Hoosiers?
IU relies on close twos (top 28% for shot distribution), but the Cornhuskers are in the top 1% for the lowest close two shot distribution allowed. For a team that takes only 17.0 three-point looks per game (bottom 4%), the Hoosiers' three-point attack is tough to trust.
With that said, I'm looking for defense to reign supreme in this matchup. Each squad is in the top 37% of PPG allowed and eFG% allowed.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.