3 Best College Basketball Bets and Player Props for Purdue at Michigan State

The college basketball season is rolling along, giving us plentiful betting options with so many teams in action each day.

Fortunately, we have abundant tools available that can aid our chances of finding good betting value. Bart Torvik and KenPom are excellent sources that give insights into team-level efficiency, and Sports Reference provides a wide range of useful team stats, as well.

Two of the Big Ten's top four teams meet tonight as No. 13 Purdue pays a visit to No. 14 Michigan State. The Boilermakers are looking to bounce back from a two-game losing streak, and the Spartans come off a notable 79-65 win over Illinois. However, MSU still has some consistency questions as it lost 71-67 against Indiana on February 11.

To add to the intrigue, FanDuel Sportsbook is offering a promo for all customers betting on the Purdue vs Michigan State game happening February 18th!

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Let's check out FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball odds to find the best bets and player props for Purdue-Michigan State.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Purdue at Michigan State Betting Picks

Under 148.5 Points (-110)

Both teams average over 78.0 points per game (PPG), but this isn't a great matchup for either offense.

Purdue's shot distributions are already quite concerning by sitting in the 1st percentile of close twos shot distribution and 41st percentile of distribution from three-point land. About 33.9% of the Boilermakers' shots are labeled "farther twos" by Bart Torvik (3rd percentile). In a game ruled by shots around the rim and three-point looks, mid-range jumpers have become widely frowned upon.

For a team relying on mid-range jump shots, inconsistent production feels unavoidable. We've seen exactly that as Purdue posted 68.0 PPG from January 15 to January 21 followed by 88.0 PPG from January 24 to February 7.

For the most part, the Boilermakers are leaning on twos as they are in the 62nd percentile of dunk shot distribution. However, Michigan State ranks 15th in Bart Torvik's adjusted defensive efficiency and sits in the 68th percentile of dunk shot distribution allowed and the 92nd percentile of close twos shot distribution allowed.

Scoring worries aren't exclusive to Purdue, for MSU is in the 8th percentile of three-point shot distribution compared to the 62nd percentile for close twos shot distribution. The Boilermakers have the answer by allowing only a 32.0% close twos shot distribution (92nd percentile).

Bart Torvik's projections have this total reaching only 145 points, providing even more evidence for the under.

Braden Smith to Make 3+ Threes (+154)

If I had to lean a side in this matchup, it'd be with Purdue. Both defenses are vulnerable on the perimeter, including Michigan State ranking in the 34th percentile of three-point shot distribution allowed. Of the two offenses, the Boilermakers are the much better three-point shooting team by shooting 37.7% from beyond the arc (93rd percentile) while averaging 8.0 three-point makes per contest (62nd percentile).

If Purdue has to shoot more often from three-point land, it has the efficiency to cash the tries. With the Spartans in the 27th percentile of three-point attempts allowed per game, I'm circling one of the Boilermakers' deep threats.

Braden Smith comes off one of his worst games of the season, logging only six points while making 2 of 10 shots (20.0%). He's due for a bounce back as one of college basketball's best point guards.

In a small sample size of two games, Michigan State has given up 16.3 points per 40 minutes in conference play against pure point guards. We shouldn't totally rely on this number considering the small sample size, but it's something to keep in mind. Plus, Smith already logs 16.0 PPG on the season while ranking second on the team with a 26.2% usage rate.

Three-point shooting is one of Smith's many talents, converting 38.6% of his three-point looks. He's also second on the squad with 9.1 three-point shots per 100 minutes. Reaching three made three-pointers isn't unheard of for Smith, for he's reached the number in two of the last four. Plus, he's had plenty of big scoring performances by totaling at least 24 points in four of the last six.

Following a poor showing in the scoring department, Smith is bound to return form. His three-ball should strike true against the Spartans' shaky perimeter defense.

Jase Richardson Over 12.5 Points (-125)

Similar to Purdue, the three-ball should hold more weight than normal for Michigan State. However, the Spartans have been dreadful from deep by shooting only 29.1% (3rd percentile) while recording 5.6 made threes per game (4th percentile).

The Boilermakers are in the 14th percentile of three-point shot distribution allowed and give up 24.5 three-point attempts per contest (23rd percentile). Shooting some threes seems unavoidable against this defense, and Jase Richardson is one of two Spartans (along with Jeremy Fears Jr.) we can trust when it comes to launching it from deep.

Richardson shoots 37.9% from three, but he attempts only 2.4 shots per game. I'm not trusting his volume enough to back multiple made threes (+198) even if the plus odds are enticing. Still, a couple of threes is enough to vault Richardson to over 12.5 points.

He's upped his production of recent by posting 17.7 PPG over his last three (10.3 PPG for the season). Richardson is labeled as a combo guard by Bart Torvik, and when Purdue faces this position in Big Ten play, it gives up a 15.3% usage rate (second-highest) and 12.8 field goal attempts per 40 minutes (fourth-highest).

Richardson's increased role could continue in a nice matchup against the Boilermakers.

Which bets stand out to you across the nation tonight? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest college basketball betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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