3 Best Bets to Win the 2025 Whitney Stakes

Key Takeaways:

• Post Time is a live long shot with a powerful closing kick and a pace setup tailor-made for his style.
• Sierra Leone is the class of the closers and gets a rabbit to ensure the honest fractions he needs to fire his best shot.
• White Abarrio returns to his ideal conditions and can get first run on the closers from a tactical outside draw.
• A hot early pace is expected, favoring runners who can sit and pounce late.

One of the feature races of the 2025 summer horse racing meet at Saratoga Race Course is the Grade 1, $1 million Whitney Stakes. Covering 1 ⅛ miles on the dirt, the race drew a field of 10, though at most nine are expected to run since rail-drawn Mindframe is expected to pass and return in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) later in the meet. In addition to the rich purse, a bid to the Breeders’ Cup Classic is at stake.

Last year’s top two finishers in the Breeders’ Cup Classic winner are likely to be the top two in the market for the Whitney. Those include the 2024 champion, three-year-old winner Sierra Leone, as well as 2023 champion juvenile Fierceness. Fierceness, stretching out from a second-place finish in the Met Mile over a sloppy track, is the narrow morning-line favorite. However, post-time odds could go either way.

Joining them at the starting gate are others with success at the championship meet. White Abarrio, winner of the Whitney in 2023 and the Pegasus World Cup this year, won the Breeders’ Cup Classic in 2023. Post Time, runner-up in the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile behind Cody’s Wish, also tries to prove himself over this longer trip.

The Whitney is the 11th and featured race of 13 on the card at Saratoga on Saturday. Post time is scheduled for 5:41 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time. It is one of five graded-stakes races on the card, including four at the Grade 1 level.

These are the three Whitney Stakes best bets:

1. Post Time (2025 Whitney Stakes odds: 12-1)

The name of the game in the Whitney is speed. Long shot Contrary Thinking—Sierra Leone’s stablemate—appears to be entered as a rabbit. Mama’s Gold only knows one way to go, and that’s to the front. Fierceness shapes to be forward as well, and with the change back to jockey Jose Ortiz, Skippylongstocking should show pace as well. This adds up to a rollicking pace, likely in the Whitney. And yes, it benefits Sierra Leone … but it also does wonders for a Whitney Stakes pick who will be several times the price.

That horse is Post Time. Though he has yet to capture his Grade 1 win, this Maryland stalwart has shown he can hang with Grade 1 company: he was second to Cody’s Wish in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile last year. He was also a competitive third behind Arthur’s Ride in the Whitney last year, well ahead of the previous year’s Preakness Stakes winner National Treasure, who finished sixth as the odds-on favorite. This is a deeper group than last year’s edition, but the pace looks to set up even better for Post Time, and he may be an even better horse now than he was a year ago.

And, his most recent start was excellent. Though it came against softer company at Laurel, he was forced to close into a dawdling pace. Not only did he get there—he drew off to win by 3 ½ lengths. Post Time should get a clean break from the outside, and if he can tuck in, wait his turn, and close once the speed has burned itself out, he can give Sierra Leone a run for his money.

2. Sierra Leone (2025 Whitney Stakes odds: 2-1)

Entering a rabbit isn’t a common strategy in horse racing nowadays, but it’s a smart move when you’ve got a pace-dependent horse. It’s not that Sierra Leone runs badly without a red-hot pace in front of him—he has never missed the board in 11 starts, after all. But, he certainly runs better when he gets rollicking fractions in front of him, something he hasn’t gotten since he won the Breeders’ Cup Classic last November.

This time, trainer Chad Brown and co-owner Peter Brant aren’t leaving that to chance: they entered Contrary Thinking, a last-out allowance winner. He won that one-mile race on the front end last out, meaning he should have no trouble showing speed at this longer distance. With Mama’s Gold certain to go and several others possible up front as well, at worst it looks like a speed duel, and at best it looks like a bona fide multi-way fight. That’s just the way Sierra Leone—a closer who always fires—likes it.

Of course, Sierra Leone isn’t the longest price among the dependable closers here—that’s the aforementioned Post Time. Sierra Leone also has to prove he can win at the Spa: he was second in the Jim Dandy (G2) last year and third in both the Belmont Stakes (G1) and the Travers Stakes (G1). But, he is the classiest of the closers, and on his better days, there is a good chance that he just proves to be the fastest horse with the best pace setup.

3. White Abarrio (2025 Whitney Stakes odds: 4-1)

White Abarrio is vying to become the first two-time Whitney Stakes winner since Commentator in 2005 and 2008, and he has a good shot to do just that. Though he comes out of a fourth-place finish over a wet track in the Met Mile, when facing the best horses, he is more effective over more distance and a dry track. He gets both of those things on Saturday.

Though there is a lot of pace in the race, White Abarrio does not need to be drawn into a battle. He has tactical speed from a draw toward the outside, and he should be able to sit a couple lengths back, let the real speed horses fight it out, and get an early run. Especially if the track tends to be playing well toward forwardly placed horses, something that can be the case, that ability to get the jump on the closers may prove crucial.

The connections also weigh well for White Abarrio. He keeps regular rider Irad Ortiz, Jr. in the irons—Ortiz has started the Saratoga meet blazing hot, and in the last two months, he and trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr. have offered a positive flat-bet ROI. And, although Joseph has only won twice in 15 starts going into the week of racing, he has eight more money finishes, meaning the barn is still going well and being consistently competitive at Saratoga.

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