3 Best Bets: Saratoga Race Course, July 27-28

The Saratoga horse racing meet heads into its third exciting weekend. The weather should be excellent through the weekend: though there are some storms on Wednesday, it should be sunny and warm through the rest of the racing week, meaning fields should be full and racing should be thrilling from start to finish.

Weekend stakes races include the Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap (G1) for older dirt sprinters and the Jim Dandy (G2) for dirt route sophomores on Saturday, as well as the Bowling Green (G2) for older turf routers on Sunday. However, there are great betting opportunities at all levels of the class ladder at Saratoga, and that’s what we’re here to explore!

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Saturday, July 27

Race 5: $50,000 starter allowance - Have You Heard (6-1)

This race is a 1 ⅛-mile starter allowance for horses who have been in for tags of $50,000 or less, and haven’t won a race at anything other than maiden or claiming levels. The 5-2 morning-line favorite is Who’s the King. He comes out of a good second-place finish in a first-level allowance going 1 ⅛ miles, which class-wise is a positive. However, that race was against straight three-year-olds, and now he faces older horses for the first time in his career. That is a significant step to take, and there is also the risk that he bounces off of that major jump forward he took in that June 30 race at Churchill Downs.

More interesting is Have You Heard, drawn on the fence. He is going in the right direction, and finding himself in dirt races at a mile or more. Like the favorite, he is a three-year-old, but his last three starts have come against older horses, so that is not a new challenge for him. He is also a more interesting condition-book fit than the favorite … and a lot of times, in conditioned allowances and starter allowances, horse racing bettors can find good value with runners who sneak more wins under a condition.

The favorite only has a win in a straight sophomore maiden optional claiming race. Have you Heard, on the other hand? He graduated three back, first off the Mike Maker claim, in a high-priced maiden claimer open to older horses. He then beat a salty group last out at Colonial. Yes, it was an off-turf field of five. But, he didn’t have a great trip and still overcame it. And Even though Have You Heard is only three, every one of his foes was older. Many of them had stakes or even graded-stakes experience. It was a mix of salty open older claimers and second-level allowance horses. This race gives him some class relief—but not in a suspicious way, since he isn’t being risked for a tag.

Have You Heard does have a few things to prove, as he is buried down on the rail and he has never stretched out past 1 1/16 miles. But, if he can break well, he should get a tactical trip under high-percentage rider Irad Ortiz. As for the distance, he is by Hard Spun out of a family with enough distance form to make the stretch out interesting, especially for trainer Mike Maker, who has made his name in longer races.

Sunday, July 28

Race 1: Maiden special weight - My Shot (3-1)

The morning-line favorite in this race is Donor Advised at 9/5. She will probably go off even shorter than that because she is trained by Chad Brown and ridden by Irad Ortiz, but there are good reasons she is not the most likely winner of this race. Her pedigree appeals more for distance than it does for this sprint trip; the female family (that of Pomeroys Pistol and Thousand Words) can be any kind but the Gun Runner on top weighs for distance. And, the picture of precocity in her pedigree is muddled: Gun Runner is a solid enough 16% with first-time starters, but her dam went 0-for-7, and her only half-sibling to start so far went 0-for-8.

Perhaps Bossy Dish (5-2) can improve off her lone start, but the more interesting play is first-time starter My Shot (3-1) for trainer Tom Amoss. Amoss has gotten a sharp start to the Saratoga meet, with three wins from his first 10 starters. His barn can win at a price with horses debuting in maiden special weights, and recent races with jockey Jose Ortiz have been good. She has a long worktab leading into the race, regular through the spring and summer, good for building fitness. And, the precocity in the close family is there: her dam won as a juvenile at second asking, and her one winning half-sibling so far won on debut in a dirt sprint.

Race 9: Bowling Green (G2) - Ohana Honor (7-2)

The likely favorite for this race, Silver Knott, has been a revelation at these longer distances on the turf this year. He is likely to be heavily bet in this race, a 1 ⅜-mile turf test, after confident scores in the Elkhorn (G2) and the Man O’ War (G2) in his last two starts. That includes a 4 ½-length victory over Ohana Honor in the Man O’ War. Silver Knott also stands to take a lot of money just because he is trained by Charlie Appleby, a star European trainer who is known for his acumen in deciding which horses to ship across to North America for stakes starts there.

There are strong reasons that Ohana Honor, an up-and-comer for trainer Shug McGaughey, can turn the tables on Silver Knott at appealing odds. Ohana Honor was well off the pace in the Man O’ War, and Silver Knott flat-out got the jump on him that day. However, from a near-inside post in the Manhattan (G1) next out, Ohana Honor was closer to the lead despite the shorter distance, and chased on for third. Now, he stretches back out to a longer distance, something more in his wheelhouse. With Sugoi, Strong Quality, and Strong Tide all likely to create an honest pace, Ohana Honor can get a good trip just behind them. If Kendrick Carmouche can stick close to or even try going just ahead of Silver Knott early, his best is good enough to beat Silver Knott in the end.

One other factor that will help the price on Ohana Honor is Soldier Rising. Soldier Rising is a class horse who often shows up with a good effort at this level. He likes this distance range, too. However, he also really likes to finish second: he has run second in five of his last six starts, and in 10 of his 21 career starts. He only has four wins, and his last win came about two years ago in a third-level allowance. Soldier Rising has every right to hit the board, but bettors will play him as if he is “due,” meaning that’s money not depressing the price of horses who are more proven on the win end.

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