3 Best Bets for Wednesday's Lone Star Series Matchup: Rangers at Astros (7/26/23)

In the third Lone Star Series of 2023, the Texas Rangers (59-43) will be visiting the Houston Astros (58-44) on Wednesday for Game 3 of a three-game set.

This year, the intrastate rivalry has come with intensity given the two sides' respective spots atop the AL West. After dropping the last two contests, Texas leads Houston in the divisional standings by just one game.

On Monday, the Rangers and Astros combined to produce 19 total runs, capped by a ninth-inning walk-off single from Houston catcher Yainer Diaz. Then on Tuesday, the Astros emerged victorious again after thwarting a late effort from Texas.

Transparently, I had a much better feel on last night's Subway (Mets-Yanks) and Bay Bridge Series (A's-Giants) games. For Tuesday's Lone Star showdown, I cashed only a prop bet (+110) on J.P. France's strikeout total.

To keep a strong week going, let's survey the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to find the three best bets for Wednesday's Lone Star matchup from Minute Maid Park.

Rangers Run Line +1.5 (-134)

Probable pitchers on Wednesday show a pair of lefties: Andrew Heaney is going for Texas while the Astros will turn to staff ace Framber Valdez.

In 2023, Valdez is having a stellar year. By the current AL Cy Young odds, Valdez is among the market favorites (+500) at FanDuel Sportsbook.

I believe the Astros stand a solid chance to sweep the rival Rangers tonight, but Houston's moneyline (-188) on Wednesday is a little inflated considering they are facing one of the best teams in baseball. Texas is showing a staggering run differential of +149, which is the top mark in MLB. Additionally, the Rangers own an impressive wOBA of .359 against left-handed pitching in 2023. As such, I am on Rangers +1.5 (-134).

Run line bets are often pesky but more so when riding with the game favorite (needing a win by multiple runs). Since Texas is the outright underdog on Wednesday versus Houston, the Rangers' run line reciprocates the safety net -- Texas can lose by a single run and still cash this wager. Of course, if the Rangers are able to win the game, our wager obviously hits.

Honestly, this game between divisional foes that are stacked with talent is a little hard to read. But considering Heaney's (4.41 SIERA in 2023) arduous season thus far, I am not confident enough to play Texas on the moneyline (where they show +158 odds).

numberFire is in line, projecting the Rangers to cover 60.8% of the time.

Under 8.5 Runs (-110)

I went back and forth with the total here, but I am going under. In the previous two Lone Star matchups, the total market has been split (Monday was for the over, Tuesday was for the under).

The fact that Valdez is on the bump for Houston is one of the driving factors pushing me toward the under. He has been masterful in 2023, featuring a 2.94 ERA (3.33 SIERA), which is top-five in the Majors right now. Additionally, he is inducing ground balls at a 53.6% clip -- that goes a long way toward turning double-plays and keeping runs off the board.

I understand that sluggers Jose Altuve (32 games played in 2023) and Yordan Alvarez (57 games) are likely returning to Houston's lineup tonight, but there could be a rust factor for two guys who have been out a while.

Plus, Heaney, for all his warts, owns an 11.3% swinging-strike rate, so he's not that bad.

With Valdez leading the charge against a Texas team that has been not quite themselves the past week, I am going under 8.5 total runs for Wednesday.

Framber Valdez Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-106)

To piggyback off the last bet, Valdez also has a good shot to cash the over on his strikeout prop. With the K number set at 6.5 for Valdez, I see him eclipsing that total.

Right now, Valdez is sporting a mark of 9.78 strikeouts per nine. He has struck out 17 total hitters over two starts since the All-Star break.

Valdez does have one prior start versus Texas this season. Back on April 16, Valdez notched seven Ks against Texas through six innings pitched, punching out the likely 2023 AL Rookie of the Year -- Josh Jung -- twice that day.

The Rangers are definitely one of the strongest offenses in baseball, but like most teams that hack, Texas does its fair share of striking out. In 2023, Ranger hitters have gone down on strikes 8.51 times per game.

I think Texas will have a tough time against Valdez. Keep in mind, the Rangers struck out a blistering 11 times on Monday in Houston. numberFire's model likes the over, too, although it's very close as they peg Valdez to record 6.9 Ks.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.