3 Best Bets for Tyson Fury vs. Arslanbek Makhmudov

Tyson Fury returns from retirement — again — to face the most legitimate knockout threat of his career since Deontay Wilder, with the fight scheduled for April 11 in London. The Gypsy King is back on home soil for the first time since December 2022, carrying a 34-2-1 record into a 12-round heavyweight bout against Arslanbek "The Lion" Makhmudov, a brutal Russian-Canadian puncher who has stopped 19 of his 21 opponents.

Here are the best bets for Fury vs. Makhmudov via FanDuel Sportsbook's Fury vs. Makhmudov odds.

All boxing odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

Fury vs. Makhmudov Boxing Picks, Best Bets and Analysis

Fighter Backgrounds

Tyson Fury — "The Gypsy King"

Fury is one of the most gifted heavyweight boxers of his generation — a 6'9" giant with an 85-inch reach, exceptional footwork, a smothering jab, and the kind of ring IQ that allowed him to neutralize Deontay Wilder in two of three bouts. His 2015 upset of Wladimir Klitschko and his 2020 TKO of Wilder remain career highlights. However, his final two fights against Oleksandr Usyk told a sobering story: a split-decision loss in May 2024, followed by a unanimous decision defeat in December 2024 that wasn't particularly close. Fury hasn't registered a win since stopping Francis Ngannou in October 2023. He briefly retired after the Usyk rematch before announcing his comeback in January 2026, citing the tragic deaths of Anthony Joshua's close friends in a car crash as a motivating factor in his return to the sport.

He returns to the UK after a 3.5-year absence from British soil, fighting in front of what will be a roaring home crowd at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. He holds the physical and technical advantages in almost every category against Makhmudov — size, reach, boxing skills, experience (254 rounds pro), and ring craft. The key questions surround his age (37), his conditioning after 15+ months out of the ring, and whether the Usyk losses took something lasting out of him mentally and physically.

Arslanbek Makhmudov — "The Lion"

Makhmudov is not a household name outside North America, but he is a legitimate and dangerous heavyweight. Since turning pro in 2018, the Montreal-based Russian has built a 21-2 record with a stunning 90.5% stoppage rate — 19 of 21 wins by KO/TKO, including 13 in the first round alone. He holds WBC Silver and WBC Continental Americas titles and has notable wins over Carlos Takam, Samuel Peter, and most recently Dave Allen (a 12-round decision in October 2025). He stands 6'5" with an 80-inch reach — not small by any measure, just smaller than Fury.

His two losses provide the blueprint for beating him: Agit Kabayel stopped him in Round 4 in December 2023 and Guido Vianello stopped him in Round 8 in August 2024 — both using disciplined counter-punching and lateral movement to force Makhmudov to miss, gas out, and get picked apart. He also has only 69 total professional rounds of experience, which is remarkably thin given the quality of opponent Fury represents. His chin is a genuine question mark — both losses came by KO/TKO.

Best Bet #1: Tyson Fury to Win by KO/TKO/DQ (-220)

The Bet

Fury wins the fight by knockout, technical knockout or disqualification.

The Analysis

This is the highest-confidence bet on the board, and the -220 price — while not generous — is fully justified by the evidence.

Start with Fury's own stoppage record. He has 24 knockouts in 34 wins, a 70.6% KO rate that places him firmly in the elite tier of heavyweight punchers. He can finish fights. He has done it against elite opposition and journeymen alike. His stiff jab at range, his powerful overhand right, and his ability to smother opponents against the ropes are all weapons well-suited to stopping Makhmudov.

Now turn to Makhmudov's vulnerability. Despite his ferocious power, Makhmudov has a documented fragility when facing quality opponents. Both of his professional losses came by stoppage — he was halted in Round 4 by Kabayel and in Round 8 by Vianello. Neither Kabayel nor Vianello brings the combination of size, reach, ring IQ, and power that Fury does. Fury has 9 inches of reach on Makhmudov and 4 inches of height — a physical mismatch that will be visible from the first round.

Kabayel and Vianello also exposed Makhmudov's key structural weaknesses: he is a flat-footed brawler who lunges at opponents and lacks the head movement to avoid counters. Against a slow or stationary fighter, this style works. Against Fury — a man with legitimate heavyweight footwork who spent 36 rounds with Deontay Wilder, arguably the hardest puncher in heavyweight history — Makhmudov's lunge-and-load style becomes an invitation for a counter right hand or a thudding jab on the way in. Fury also exploited body-shot vulnerability successfully against Wilder; Makhmudov showed the same weakness against Kabayel.

The most likely fight script: Fury uses the jab in the early rounds to measure range and limit Makhmudov's bursts, lands the overhand right on the lunges in the middle rounds, and breaks Makhmudov down with body work before a stoppage somewhere in the mid-to-late rounds. Given the physical mismatch and Makhmudov's documented KO vulnerability, that probability feels conservative.

Best Bet #2: Fight Does NOT Go the Distance (-350)

The Bet

The fight ends before the final bell — by any method, any fighter.

The Analysis

This bet benefits from both fighters' profiles simultaneously. You don't need to pick who stops whom — you just need the fight to end early, and the profiles of both men make that the overwhelming likelihood.

Start with Makhmudov's side: he has ended 19 of 21 fights by stoppage. Of his 21 wins, 19 are knockouts — and 13 of those came in the first round. He is one of the most prolific first-round finishers in modern heavyweight boxing. Even against Allen and Takam — his two fights that went to decision — Allen was visibly hurt repeatedly and Takam was fortunate to survive. Makhmudov will be throwing bombs from the opening bell.

Fury's side of the ledger tells a similar story from the opposite direction. While Fury is predominantly a boxer, he finished 24 opponents in 34 wins and his recent fights suggest he prefers to close the show rather than coast on points. He stopped Derek Chisora in his last UK fight (2022), stopped Dillian Whyte, stopped Otto Wallin when badly cut, and fought through chaos in two KO-of-the-year-level bouts against Wilder. When Fury has the right opponent and the right motivation, he finishes fights.

The key insight is that these two profiles — one elite power puncher (Makhmudov) and one physically dominant, experienced finisher (Fury) — almost guarantee that this fight will not run to scorecards. The two paths to a decision are (1) Fury boxes defensively and cruises 12 rounds, or (2) Makhmudov lands enough in the first few rounds to survive by running. Neither seems plausible. Fury has been vocal about making a statement in his return, and Makhmudov simply does not have the foot speed or boxing skills to survive 12 rounds against a motivated Fury.

Verdict: Recommended. The cleanest structural bet available.

Best Bet #3: Tyson Fury to Win the Fight in Round 7–9 (+300)

The Bet

Fury stops the fight specifically in Rounds 7, 8, or 9.

The Analysis

This is the calculated upside bet — the one that pays you for identifying not just who wins but roughly when and how.

The fight script points strongly toward a mid-fight finish by Fury. Here's the logic: in Round 1 through 4, Makhmudov is at his most dangerous. He opens with overwhelming aggression and has 13 first-round finishes — he gets up on his toes (temporarily) and launches big shots early. Fury's best strategy in those rounds is to use the jab, circle, and avoid getting caught clean. Fury has been knocked down before — Wilder, Ngannou, Cunningham, and Usyk have all floored him — so letting Makhmudov gas himself throwing wild punches in the early going is the smart play.

By rounds 5 and 6, however, a fighter with only 69 career professional rounds who has been throwing and missing against a moving, jab-heavy target will begin to slow. Makhmudov's conditioning is a genuine question mark. His two losses both came in the middle rounds — Kabayel stopped him in Round 4 after breaking him down systematically, and Vianello finished him in Round 8. Neither man posed as much of a sustained physical problem as Fury will.

The round 7–9 window also aligns with Fury's pattern in his most complete performances. He broke Wilder down with body shots in the middle rounds. He wore Chisora down over seven rounds. He systematically dismantled opponents through physical attrition. Against Makhmudov — a fighter who will punch himself out by Round 6 if Fury is smart — rounds 7–9 represent the ideal opportunity for Fury to take over and find the finish.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.