3 Best Bets for Sunday Night Football: Jets at Steelers
Two teams who made a huge move in search of improvement collide on primetime this week.
The New York Jets need wins right now. They're 2-4 and took another step behind the Buffalo Bills with a heartbreaking loss on Monday that came down to New York's inability to kick a field goal. Sensing their mortality, the team made a move to give away a draft pick and pry Davante Adams from the Las Vegas Raiders. He'll play in this one.
Not to be outdone, the Pittsburgh Steelers are shifting at the sport's most important position. As originally planned, Russell Wilson will usurp Justin Fields for the first time this season. A 4-2 record wasn't enough for the youngster to hold off the former Super Bowl winner as Mike Tomlin's signal-caller.
Who will get the better of who with these parts shifting?
Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best bets for this week's edition of Sunday Night Football.
All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.
Sunday Night Football Betting Picks: Jets at Steelers
Steelers Moneyline (+104)
Steelers -4.5 (+200)
Steelers Over 19.5 Points (-110)
If the Jets didn't make a move for Davante Adams, they'd almost certainly be underdogs in Western Pennsylvania on Sunday. That alone provides some value in this betting line, but there's also reason to believe the Steelers were better before these shifts and still are.
Benefitting from a home field typically worth a few points on the spread, Pittsburgh is numberFire's 5th-ranked schedule-adjusted defense compared to New York's 11th-place mark. On offense, the Steelers (20th) also slightly outrank the Jets (22nd) as both teams sit below the league average. This week, Adams' insertion over Mike Williams in the lineup isn't as impactful as Russell Wilson could be for the home side.
Justin Fields' record is clean, but there's no doubt he's left meat on the bone offensively for Pittsburgh. Even last week's "breakout" game where he averaged 0.32 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db; via NFL's NextGenStats), he had just a 47.1% passing success rate. Fields' scrambling isn't a means for consistent survival when this Steelers defense doesn't need a ton of support to win games.
numberFire is extremely confident in the Steelers winning this one, projecting a 67.5% win rate for the Curtains. With a projected margin of 5.3 points, I'll have a bit of fun and leap to a 4.5-point alternate spread that could be cashed with a touchdown-sized margin.
There's also an added dimension of this bet, which is the Jets' defense -- now missing the head man of its last few strong years -- not playing particularly well. New York allowed a Bills offense without James Cook to run all over them, totaling 149 rushing yards. Josh Allen also posted a stellar 0.24 EPA/db. Realistically, the Jets benefitted from a slow tempo and an Aaron Rodgers heave before halftime to not get boat raced.
Pittsburgh has quietly hit this points mark in three of its last four games. nF is projecting 23.9 total points for Pittsburgh, providing substantial cushion for 20-plus.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.